Northwest Flow And Odile Leftovers

A mid-level ridge of high pressure centered over the Rockies and a developing trough across Hudson Bay and the northeastern U.S. will keep a northwesterly upper air flow near the state for the next few days.  This will bring a few storm complexes near the area Wednesday and Thursday morning.  Temperatures today will stay in the upper 70s and lower 80s.  A few showers are still on the radar this morning but will be confined to the southern third of the state for most of the day.

A cold front moved across the area late yesterday afternoon and evening with a few scattered thunderstorms.  Most of the active weather zone this morning and later today will remain south of northeastern OK.  A few showers or storms will be possible today along the Red River  Valley, but most if not all of this activity will remain south of the Tulsa metro.  The boundary will stall later today and move northward as a warm front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as an upper level disturbance embedded in the northwest flow aloft brings another round of showers and storms near the state.  The higher probability will remain northeast of Tulsa, but with northwest flow events, a minor error in trajectory can mean morning storms. I'll keep at least a 20% pop and probably slightly higher for Thursday morning due to this pattern and the support of model data.

The main forecast challenge for the weekend revolves on the remnants of Hurricane Odile.  This system near the Baja is moving northwest but the abundant oceanic-tropical moisture content will spread into the desert southwest during the next few days.  Some of this moisture may be transported into our area Saturday and Sunday as a trough moves across the central plains.  A surface front will approach the area either Saturday or early Sunday morning bringing a heavy rainfall threat to the region.  This front should clear our area sometime Sunday morning with cooler and drier air moving southward across the state sometime Sunday night or Monday.  At this point, we'll start the heavy rainfall potential Saturday midday to afternoon and clear the boundary during the early Sunday morning hours across southern OK.

Temps today could stay in the upper 70s north and lower 80s south, but I'll more than likely keep most locations in the 80s along with northeast winds around 10 mph.  Temps for the remainder of the week will be near or slightly above the seasonal average until early next week. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion.

Have a great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV