A Return to More Typical August Weather in Time for the Weekend.

Hard to believe, but so far this August there has only been one day that was above normal with respect to temperature. That trend will continue through today and again for Friday which means the first half of the month will certainly have been a mild one. Not for much longer though as the trend through the weekend and most likely for the rest of the month will be for a return to more seasonal levels of temperature and precipitation.

The last few days have also had dew point temperatures in the 50s and low 60s which allows our nights to cool off quickly and keeps the humidity comfortably low during the heat of the day. That will also be changing as our winds return to a more southerly direction which will bring more low level moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico. So, today will likely be the last of the relatively mild days as a return to more typical August weather takes place.

By the way, notice the nationwide map on the right which the OK Mesonet provided. It shows the temperatures trends across the country so far this year. Here in Tulsa, only May and June have been warmer than normal, but it is interesting to see how the rest of the country has fared. The extreme heat for the far west is very obvious and so are the relatively cool conditions east of the Rockies.

For the rest of today we will have lots of sunshine, a SE breeze, and afternoon temperatures around 90 along with a minimum relative humidity of around 40% or less. Tonight will be warmer but still below normal with Friday morning temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70. Friday afternoon will have a stronger southerly breeze, partly cloudy skies and the lower 90s for a high temperature. Dew point temperatures will still be in the 60s so the humidity level should still drop into the low 40% range during the heat of the day.

After that, Saturday looks to be the hottest day of this forecast period as we will have a more SW surface wind, partly cloudy skies, and dew point temperatures back into the upper 60s if not the low 70s. Fortunately, we are still very green and the evapotranspiration from the vegetation will mitigate the heat potential so that mid-upper 90s are expected that afternoon. However, the higher dew points will push the heat index back into triple digits.

After that, low-mid 90s are expected each day through next week and morning lows in the low-mid 70s are expected each night. In other words, more typical of August.

As the heat builds and the moisture returns, there also are chances of showers and storms on just about any given day starting late Saturday and each day after that. Although some of the extended guidance suggests a weak surface boundary may make it this far south enhancing our rain chances, that is far from certain. So, for now, will carry at least a slight chance of a shower or storm on just about any given day through this forecast cycle.

Notice the 7 day QPF map on the right. We will be well removed from the more active pattern further north of us, but keep in mind this is an areal average over that time frame. A few slow moving storms will still have the potential for some locally much heavier amounts, but that should be very localized. At least there is a chance of rain on just about each day and the higher moisture together with how green everything is should combine to keep the actual air temperature below triple digits through the forecast period as well. As mentioned though, heat index values will likely be at or above triple digits each day.

So, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot