Hot Again For The Weekend, Cool-Down Next Week

Notice the two rainfall maps on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. The first one has the rains since midnight and shows the band of locally heavy rainfall amounts from NW to SE and which produced some localized flooding near Skiatook and some other locations. The second map shows the two day rainfall totals and which illustrates the other, narrow band of locally heavy rains that occurred yesterday, again from NW to SE but over the OKC area where localized flooding also occurred. Point being these summer-time rainfall events are often rather localized and very difficult to pinpoint where these training events will occur. But, when they do, they can provide some locally very heavy rains while nearby locations barely receive enough to settle the dust.

The rain footprint from these recent events will also have an impact on temperatures. Obviously, the clouds and showers persisting into the afternoon held temperatures down today, but as we head into the weekend, lots more sunshine together with a more S to SW surface wind is a recipe for some very hot weather. However, the rain footprint should be extensive enough to temper the heat at least somewhat so triple digits appear less likely. Low-mid 90s are now expected for Friday which is at least a couple of degrees cooler than expected just a day or two ago. Same story on Saturday with mid-upper 90s now expected. However, another day of full sun and those SW winds should get us to triple digit territory on Sunday.

Obviously with all the sunshine, the Fri-Sun time period is also expected to be dry. But, some big changes are headed our way as we go into next week. A rather strong cool front, at least by July standards, is expected to be arriving on Monday. The timing of its arrival will have a lot to do with afternoon temperatures so for now will go with mid 90s with the understanding that may change considerably depending on If the front arrives earlier or later in the day. There will also be at least a chance for some showers/storms late in the day and primarily for the more northern counties.

All the longer range guidance continues to suggest much below normal temperatures will then prevail for the rest of the week with daytime highs only in the lower 80s and overnight lows in the lower 60s. Depending on cloud cover, some days may even struggle to make it to 80. Also, there will be at least a chance of showers/storms on just about every day as the front stalls out and a more NW flow pattern aloft develops. Notice the last two maps on the right which show the 8-14 day temperature and precipitation trends. Don’t recall when I have seen such a strong signal for below normal temperatures during the month of July. Will be interesting to see if that pattern does indeed verify.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot