A brief window for storms exists through early Monday morning for northern Oklahoma. This follows an overnight rain and storm complex that dumped over 3" of rain in parts of Green Country early Sunday morning. (See the totals in the first map) Meager amounts of rain fell from Tulsa southward as the storms gradually lost their energy.
Those storms set up a few outflow boundaries that could still serve as a focus for evening and overnight storm development. Any storms that form in this moisture-rich environment could produce torrential rains again and pose a limited risk for severe weather. Hail and high winds could accompany the heaviest storms. The most likely zone for storms is found in the yellow zone in the second map. It does include Tulsa. However, the most likely corridor for a late-night rumble would be near the OK/KS line. By sunrise, the focus for storms will likely have passed to our NE and we will begin the work week with quiet weather.
That is when very summer-like conditions settle into our region for a few days. Given enough sunshine, temperatures may top 90° by Monday afternoon. Due to the ample moisture still in the air, heat index values by afternoon may hit or exceed 95°. We'll have a nice breeze, which, combined with the moisture, will only allow for temperatures to drop into the mid-70s at night. Those refreshingly cool mornings of the past week are unfortunately not making a return anytime soon.
The hot, humid weather will carry on through midweek. Starting late on Wednesday, a few storms could make a run at eastern Oklahoma. The better chance comes Thursday night as another storm system far to our north (Dakotas) will send a frontal boundary close to us. Whether or not it pushes to Tulsa or southward is still in question, but that will increase our chance of storms for the second half of the week. Between potential rainfall tonight and storms through Friday, another 1" to 2" of rain could occur. (See final map) Little by little, we will continue to chip away at that drought.