Tuesday Morning Update

The upper level low is close to the region this morning.  A few scattered showers and storms have persisted overnight near and northeast of the center.  This feature will slide away from the area today with decreasing shower and storm chances by midday.  Highs will move into the upper 70s from Tulsa east and lower 80s west.  We'll have northwest winds around 10 to 15 mph.  We should get a break in the action Wednesday, but another late night and early morning storm complex is likely to impact the area Thursday morning.   

The upper air flow will continue to support this normal June pattern of late night and early morning storm complexes for a few more days before the mid-level ridge builds across Texas and nudges into Oklahoma.  Most of the long range data supports this scenario during the early part of next week for a couple of days.   Yesterday a surface cold front moved southeast across the area bringing mild temperatures and scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon.  Yesterday morning started with the highest rain chances of the day and most locations received measurable precipitation from Tulsa east and south.  Our total for June is currently 2.66 inches from Tulsa International Airport, which is 1 inch above normal for the month!  We are still currently at a deficit for the year of -7.05" from normal.  

Today we should have a few light showers this morning near the metro before the action slides eastward into Arkansas.  By afternoon, a few scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms will be possible as they rotate around the back side of the upper level system as it moves away from the area. This warrants a 30 to 40% pop.  Clouds this morning will thin out to some sunshine later this afternoon and clearing this evening if not sooner.   If all goes as planned, Wednesday will be a breezy and warm day with highs moving into the mid and upper 80s as south winds return in the 10 to 15 mph range by afternoon.    This may be a good day to catch up on the lawn mowing, because another system will arrive during the early morning hours of Thursday.   

The data supports a small short wave dropping out of the Rockies and sliding east to southeast into northern OK by Thursday morning.  Another complex of thunderstorm activity is likely to occur with this system, and some of this may be strong to severe with the main threats of heavy rainfall and a few damaging wind gusts.   We'll keep a high chance of showers and storms in the forecast for this time period from late Wednesday through Thursday morning to midday. 

Friday and Saturday appear fairly stable and mild.  We'll not include any pops for these periods. 

Saturday night into Sunday morning another disturbance will move out into the central plains and should brush the southern Kansas and extreme northern OK area by early in the morning.  We'll see a few showers or storms near the area, but the coverage may be low.  I'll keep a 20 to 30% pop for this period with breezy and warm conditions for afternoon highs.  

As stated above, the mid-level ridge should begin to grow into the region early next week and the polar jet appears to migrate slightly northward as heights increase across the southern plains.  This will act to keep a very active pattern across the central and northern high plains, but limit storm chances in our area until late in the week.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 80 recorded at 4:52pm.

The normal daily average high is 86 and the low is 66.

Our daily records include a high of 108 from 1911.  The daily record low is 54 from 1955.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.  

You'll also hear our forecast on Tulsa metro radio stations, including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The buzz.   These stations are part of Clear Channel Communications. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion and blog.

 Have a super great and safe day!

Alan Crone

KOTV