Thursday Morning Update

I'm posting early this morning due to the potential for active weather during the next few hours.  

We're tracking a complex of thunderstorms this morning ( MCS) moving into western Kansas at this hour ( 2:45am).  This complex will have the potential for strong to severe storms producing damaging wind gusts for several hours as it moves mainly east or southeast.  This system may be near extreme northern OK and southern Kansas between 7am and 10am this morning and could still produce damaging wind gusts for some locations.  The higher chances should reside  north of the Tulsa area, but we'll include a 30% chance of storms this morning for the Tulsa metro.  The complex will exit the region by midday but additional storms may be possible this afternoon and early evening across the area.  Another storm complex is possible early Friday morning across the area. This pattern for late night and early morning storms will remain for the next several days.  Again, our chance for mid-morning storms across northern OK is low, but if the storm complex takes a big southeast turn, this would increase the chances.

The upper pattern will support another short wave ejecting into the central U.S. today and tomorrow.  A surface boundary currently near the state line may briefly move slightly southward today before stalling and lifting slightly northward Friday.  Locations near the boundary will continue to have a chance of thunderstorms for the next several days.  Late night and early morning storm complexes are also likely to occur with southeastern Kansas and extreme northern OK in a favorable position for high pops.    

The data suggests Friday may feature a slightly high coverage across the northern third of the state and our pops will reflect this increase.

Saturday morning some showers or storms should be up and running, once again, near and along the state line area.  We'll continue to keep the pops around the likely category of 70%.   

Saturday night into Sunday the boundary takes a ride southward and thunderstorms will develop near the front.  This will require a higher coverage of storms with activity sliding southeast Sunday morning to midday into southern Ok.  North winds will follow the boundary passage with most storms located across the southern third of the state by the midday to afternoon period.  The higher chance for thunderstorms near the Tulsa metro and northern OK Sunday will occur during the early morning hours.  Any of the above mentioned pops could produce severe weather and locally heavy rainfall. 

The data has diverged with solutions for early next week but we'll continue to keep a chance for some activity in the forecast with warm temps. 

  The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 92 recorded at 3:55pm.

The daily average high is 85 and the low is 65. 

Daily records include a high of 102 from 1911 and a low of 49 from 1919. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates across the state through the morning hours. 

You'll also hear our forecast on Tulsa metro radio stations, including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The buzz.   These stations are part of Clear Channel Communications. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great and safe day!

Alan Crone

KOTV