The first map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, shows the rainfall totals across the state over the last 5 days. Of course, more rain is falling as I write this so those numbers will only go up for many locations. Certainly some badly needed moisture given how dry we were going into this event, and as is often the case, a few locations received too much too fast resulting in localized flooding problems. Recall that for Tulsa, we were about 9.5" below our normal rainfall for the year before we picked up the rains of the last few days. So, does this qualify as a drought breaker…..hardly. The ‘official' drought monitor will be released on Thursday and these rains will certainly put in dent in the severity of the drought across the state, but much more is needed. Given how far behind we were before this event and given that the month of May is typically our wettest month of the year, these recent rains have certainly been a blessing at any rate.
As the second map on the right shows, again courtesy of the OK Mesonet, we are still way behind on our normal rainfall so far this year. For NE OK in particular, this is still the 4th driest start to a calendar year on record with records going back to the turn of the 20th century. At least these rains have helped to green things up even more reducing the fire threat for the time being.
The slow moving disturbance aloft responsible for the recent rains will be slowly drifting to the SE over the course of the next several days taking most of the rain on to the SE with it. That will leave most of us on the backside of its circulation. Even so, there will be ample moisture in place and it will be close enough for at least some scattered showers/storms each day going into the weekend. The areal coverage will be less, but with a little more sunshine the instability will also be greater resulting in those showers/storms that do form becoming locally quite strong. Certainly not a severe threat, but a few locations could still end up with some locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Again, the chance that it will rain somewhere in the viewing area is 100%, but the areal coverage will be dropping off considerably so that the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall will be on the order of 20-30% for the rest of the week. The third map on the right shows the 7 day QPF and you can clearly see the heavier rains will be more to the SE which will be near the upper circulation.
The moisture from the rain footprint, partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies, and an E or even NE wind component will keep daytime temperatures close to normal with low-mid 80s expected for the rest of the week. All the moisture will also keep our nights mild with overnight lows in the 60s. What winds we do have will be generally light at 10-12 mph during the day, less at night, and as mentioned from an E/NE direction at least through Friday. Over the course of the weekend and going into next week a more southerly wind, more sunshine, and fewer showers/storms will result in warmer temperatures heading into next week.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.