Still looking good for our rain chances through the Memorial Day weekend and for several days after that. In fact, the slow moving storm system aloft is, if anything, moving more slowly than first thought keeping the best chance of rain across the more western counties over the next few days. However, at least a chance of scattered showers/storms will occur just about anywhere over the state throughout this forecast cycle….been quite awhile since I have been able to say that. Notice the 7 day QPF map on the right which suggests several inches of badly needed rainfall across the entire state. Keep in mind this represents an areal average so there will likely be some locally much heavier amounts which could result in some locations going from drought to flood in a short period of time.
Also, keep in mind this does not mean a total washout each day. Our best chance of showers/storms on this side of the state now looks to be along about Tuesday, but even then that does not mean it will rain all day. Just that showers/storms will be more widespread on that particular day and could occur at most any time of the day or night. Also, the longer range guidance continues to suggest that yet another system will be influencing our weather after this system finally moves on east of us. This will keep at least a chance of showers/storms in the forecast through the latter part of next week as well.
Temperatures will be impacted by the mostly cloudy skies and showers with daytime highs generally in the low-mid 80s instead of the upper 80s to near 90. Also, our nights will remain in the low-mid 60s. Fortunately, our winds will be lighter with wind speeds generally on the order of 5-15 mph and from the S/SE.
Since this is May, there will be a chance that a few storms could become severe but all indications suggest conditions are not supportive of an outbreak of severe weather. Any severe weather will likely be confined to a localized wind/hail threat on any given day. Although there will be ample instability to support storms, the winds aloft will be too weak to support anything long lived or organized. The winds aloft will exhibit very little directional shear meaning basically from the same direction from the surface up through the first couple of miles vertically. Also, there will be very little speed shear throughout that level. Bottom line is a good chance of showers/storms well into next week, locally heavy rainfall may occur for some locations, and some marginally severe hail/winds may also occur.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.