Tuesday Morning Update

We're starting another day in the 60s and lower 70s and will finish in the upper 80s and lower 90s.  You will notice a difference this afternoon:  more humidity.  The southeast surface winds are bringing higher dew point temps into the region and this will result in higher humidity this afternoon and tomorrow.   A strong upper level system currently along the west coast will be moving eastward soon and will bring increasing storm chances to the region Thursday.  

The upper level system will near the state Wednesday while a surface dry line will establish across western OK.  This dry line could fire up a few isolated storms Wednesday west of I-35 with any storms that do form being severe.  I don't anticipate a large number of storms Wednesday, but a few could migrate into our area Wednesday late into early Thursday morning.   

Thursday afternoon very strong winds aloft will move across the southern plains across the state of OK.  The dry line will move eastward and be positioned to fire up a few storms as the main forcing aloft moves over the area.  Current indications point toward a high storm coverage with some of the storms being severe.  

 By Thursday afternoon and evening the forcing for the event in the upper levels will be exiting the state and moving into the central high plains.  Storms may still be ongoing Friday morning for a few hours before leaving the state as a cold front moves southeast into north TX.  This boundary may move back northwest Saturday into Sunday as another upper level impulse moves in our direction.  If this is the case, the boundary could move all the way into central Kansas Saturday and Sunday keeping our area capped from most thunderstorm activity for most of the weekend.  This is a big change from yesterday's data and we'll more than likely keep some mention of pops in the forecast for the weekend.   The EURO and GFS are widely different by early next week regarding the upper air flow.  More on this tomorrow.  Hopefully we'll see some model convergence and higher confidence for this weekend into early next week.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 92 which tied our record of 92 from 1952.

The normal daily average high is 77 and the low is 56.

The daily records include a high of 93 from 2003 and the low 36 from 1944. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma news network affiliates across the state through the morning hours. 

I'll also be discussing the weather on numerous Clear Channel Radio stations across the Tulsa metro this morning including KMOD, The Twister, The Buzz, and The Beat. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Alan Crone

KOTV