Thursday Morning Update

A weak upper level wave will drop southeast out of the Rockies today as a surface cold front moves southeast this morning through midday across the area.  Some scattered showers will be possible this morning across northwestern OK and eventually sliding east to southeast during the late afternoon and evening hours.  This impulse will be fighting dry air at the surface.  We'll continue to keep a chance for some light showers into the forecast for the afternoon across eastern OK but any amounts are going to be very light.  Temperatures today will be directly tied to when cloud cover starts to "thicken up" across the eastern third of the state.  The computer numbers have been all over the map for the last few days.  I'll continue to keep a 64 for the high and let it ride!  I do think temps across central and western OK could and should be cooler.  Showers and clouds will keep readings into the mid to upper 50s for our neighbors to the west, including the OKC metro area.  Locations east of Tulsa may move into the mid and upper 60s despite a front moving southward this morning into the afternoon.  South winds will give way to north winds as the boundary slides south this morning to midday.  Wind speeds will be in the 10 to 15 mph range.  

Friday we'll start into the 40s and finish into the lower 70s.  

 Saturday looks very nice with highs nearing the upper 70s to near 80 along with south winds.  But another upper level system will near the area Saturday night into Sunday bringing another round of showers or storms back to the state including a chance in the northeastern sections. 

The return of southerly flow Friday night into Saturday morning continuing into Sunday will set the stage for a few strong to severe thunderstorms by Sunday.   Model dew points indicate a surge into the upper 60s by Sunday afternoon.   Combined with any breaks in the cloud structures, this will result in increasing instability.  

The GFS yesterday suggested some early Sunday morning showers and storms nearing the Tulsa metro.  These would more than likely not be severe, but could produce some lightning.   This morning's runs indicated very little near Tulsa Sunday morning but brought a few near the area by the afternoon.   

 Later Sunday afternoon, scattered storms could re-develop with some hail threats.  The highs Easter Sunday high will be in the lower to mid-70s.  A few scattered showers or storms may continue into early Monday morning before a surface boundary moves southward bringing slightly drier and more stable air into the state for Monday and Tuesday.  This pop on the map could undergo some changes during the next few days.  

The pattern appears to support additional storm chances by the middle to end of next week with strong southerly flow and an approaching upper level system.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 66 recorded at 5:14pm.

The normal daily average high is 72 and the low is 50.

The daily records include a high of 95 from 2006 and a low of 28 from 1921. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma news Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour. 

You'll also hear my forecast on numerous Clear Channel Radio Stations across the Tulsa metro this morning. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

 Alan Crone

KOTV