Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, March 19th 2014, 4:42 am
By: Alan Crone

The cold front-dry line moved across the state last night on schedule bringing cooler air to the region for today.  The wind speeds this morning will remain in the 10 to 20 mph range from the north for a few hours before decreasing momentum later today.  I anticipate mostly sunny conditions and highs nearing 60.  A nice spring-like day is expected but the winds this morning will make it feel rather chilly in the short term.  

We did have one or two very small showers last night along the OK-Kansas state line area.  A few sprinkles were also noted across far southeastern OK.   

The return flow from the south begins later tonight into Thursday as the next in a series of waves approaches the area.  Wind speeds Thursday will increase to near 15 to 25 mph with partly sunny and warm conditions.  Highs will reach the lower or possibly mid-70s.   

The next upper air trough will shove a surface cold front and area of low pressure across the state Friday night into Saturday morning.  Unlike the last system, the Friday pm system will encounter low level moisture pooling across southeastern and east central OK.  This will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning late Friday into early Saturday for some locations across eastern OK.  The models have various positions of the boundary and therefore various positions regarding the precip potential.  The NAM would offer pops across northern or central OK compared to the GFS across east-central OK.  Regardless, we're keeping our pops in the 30% range for Friday evening into Saturday morning.   

Saturday a surface front will slide southward with northeast winds moving cooler air across the northern third of the state.  The latest few runs of the GFS and EURO now support an additional pop for Saturday afternoon and evening across southeastern or east-central OK and points southward across east Tx.  We'll keep the Saturday evening pops at 20% for this cycle.  These pops may need to increase slightly with additional model support.  

Sunday the temps will cool into the mid-50s for afternoon highs with north winds remaining across the state.  

Next week the data continues to offer support for another frontal intrusion early next week and some cooler(colder) air.  The highs may stay into the 50s for the majority of next week with a chance for some showers Monday into Tuesday as another front slides across the state.  The EURO appears to currently be the coldest for next week.  If I ignore it, maybe it will change in the next run!  Let's hope so!   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 75 recorded at 3:05pm.

The normal daily average high is 63 and the low is 41.

Our daily records include a high of 96 from 1907 and a low of 8 from 1923. 

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Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone