Tuesday Morning Update

Tuesday, February 18th 2014, 4:39 am
By: Alan Crone

The fire danger will continue to be a threat today with southwest winds increasing speeds during the midday to afternoon.  We're continuing to track a system for Wednesday and Thursday with a chance for some scattered thunderstorms.  Another boundary will scoot near the state this weekend and more cold air is possible next week.  

The strong winds combined with low humidity helped to spread several grass fires yesterday across the state including several in eastern OK.  Wind speeds will not be as strong today compared to yesterday, but wind speeds will be increasing later today as a surface ridge moves east and the pressure begins to drop to the west.  This will occur as the next upper level wave draws near the area.  

Most data support a weak boundary sliding southward late tonight  then retreating northward during the day Wednesday.  As low level moisture is drawn northward Wednesday, a few showers or storms will be possible during the afternoon or evening.  Late Wednesday night into Thursday morning will represent the window for "best chances" for northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas.  Some elevated convective and potential energy will be present and a few storms producing small hail will be possible.  

As the main wave lifts out across the area Thursday morning, a surface low pressure area near Tulsa will rapidly lift northeast.  A cold front will sweep across the state during the morning hours with a small window for a few storms across eastern OK through the morning to mid-morning hours.  This window for showers and storms will be very brief.  The moisture will quickly be shunted eastward where severe weather potential will be possible for areas across the mid-south of the U.S.  The temps Thursday could start around 60 during the early morning hours and fall into the lower 50s by the afternoon with strong northwest winds. 

The weekend system has been flipping in the data regarding the frontal intrusion.  Regardless of the actual frontal passage, it appears the moisture will not have a chance to recover ahead of the system.  This is a typical issue for late winter and early spring systems.  We'll keep the pops out of the forecast for the weekend but will lower the highs slightly with temps back into the 50s for both Saturday and Sunday. 

Data also continue to support another shot of colder temps across the state by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.  The confidence in the timing of the system remains very low, but the confidence of more cold air arriving sometime next week is increasing.   Stay tuned.

Afternoon highs today will be in the lower 70s with mostly sunny conditions.  Wednesday features highs in the mid to upper 60s.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 66 recorded at 3:50pm.

The normal daily average high is 54 and the low is 32.

Our daily records include a high of 78 from 1930 and a low of 2 from 1936. 

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I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.  

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone