Wednesday Morning Update

A Winter weather advisory has been posted for much of eastern OK beginning tonight at 6pm and expiring early Thursday morning.  We're tracking a chance of light drizzle, freezing drizzle, freezing rain, sleet, and some snow for portions of eastern OK and western Arkansas!  It sounds like a lot, but it's not!  The amounts of any specific type of precipitation will be very light.  Most of northeastern OK will be in the running for some light drizzle this afternoon changing to some freezing drizzle or a wintry mix by later this evening.  This system will be exiting the eastern sections before dawn Thursday morning.  The real freezing rain prospects will be limited to far southeastern OK into northeast TX and amounts would be less than a 10th of an inch.  Sections of extreme northern, east central OK, and NW Arkansas could see a light dusting of snow.    Areas near or north of Tulsa could also see the light wintry mix overnight into southern Kansas but no significant accumulations would be expected.  Some freezing drizzle will be possible later this afternoon.   

The main set up has not changed much compared to yesterday at this hour when I wrote about the point soundings from the various model data.  These soundings indicate moisture will return in the lower levels of the atmosphere today while the air from the 4 to 5 thousand ft. level upward will remain relatively dry.  This type of sounding usually points toward drizzle.  The temps in the data from the 5k ft. level down to the lower part of the atmosphere will dropping slightly below freezing later this evening, overnight, and early Thursday morning.  This time period would support the potential for the light wintry impacts.  And just like yesterday's discussion, the RPM data this morning continues suggesting some sleet or snow potential for part of northern OK later this evening and the model is more robust with the moisture in the data and the temp profile is slightly colder compared to the GFS-EURO and NAM.  We'll continue to keep a mention of light drizzle in the forecast this afternoon with a changeover to freezing drizzle and possibly the wintry mix by midnight to 5am Thursday.  

The temperatures this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 30s, but as the precipitation begins to fall, temps will drop into the lower 30s and remain there until after sunset this evening when temps will drop into the upper 20s overnight.   

Thursday looks mostly cloudy with highs nearing 40.   

The next chunk of energy arrives early Friday into the midday period with increasing rain chances across most of the state.  The temp profile Friday would support all rain with south winds and temps moving from the mid-30s into the mid or upper 40s by the afternoon.  This system should move out of the region Friday night leaving the weekend in fine shape.  Temperatures Saturday would start near freezing and finish near 50 with Sunday afternoon readings in the mid or upper 50s.  

A weak boundary will clear the northern half of the state Monday but with only a modest cool down.  Highs Monday afternoon will remain in the upper 40s.  It appears we'll get a respite from the arctic air for the next 7 to 10 days.  But I don't think we're finished with the cold air intrusions yet.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 46 recorded at 4:11pm.

The normal daily average high is 47 and the low is 27.

The daily records include a high of 75 from 2003 and a low of -5 from 1988. 

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Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone

KOTV