Monday Morning Update

Monday, December 9th 2013, 4:44 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning.  We're tracking another upper level system that will move across northern OK and southern Kansas later this afternoon and evening with another chance of some light snow.  Daytime highs will top out in the mid to upper 20s today with cloudy conditions.  We should finally move above freezing by a few degrees Tuesday with some sunshine and southwest winds. We've been at or below freezing since 9pm December 4th.  

The fast moving wave is currently near the four corners region this morning.  Most if not all of the model guidance brings this feature across the northern third of the state later this afternoon and early evening producing some light snow.  Model data output suggest an inch or two would be possible across far northern OK and southern Kansas.  The higher snow output is confined to areas along the OK-Kansas state line area.  The actual liquid to snowfall ratio may produce more snow than modeled in a few areas, but more than likely, this would be very localized and along the OK-Kansas state line region.  We'll call for about a half inch to near 1 inch of snow near Tulsa with some 2 inch totals for portions of Pawnee, Osage, Washington, and Nowata counties.  Our friends in southern Kansas would be in the running for 2 to 3 inches of snow.   This event will more than likely require weather advisory headlines for a few counties in northern OK and southern Kansas later today and tonight.  At this hour, Tulsa county is not included in advisories.  Southern sections of the state will be too far south to be impacted by this fast moving wave.

The rest of the forecast until Friday is basically a temperature exercise despite another boundary sliding into the state Wednesday afternoon.  We should be experiencing sub-freezing overnight lows with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s from Wednesday through the weekend.  And we'll see a couple of days of sunshine.  That will be nice!

By Friday another upper level system will move across the southern plains bringing another round of precip to the state.  But this time the temperature profile would support rain and not wintry precipitation.  We'll increase this pop to 50%.   I don't think the wave will be lingering through the weekend and I'll keep the weekend void of any pops for this forecast cycle.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 30 recorded at 6:56pm.

The normal daily high is 51 and the low is 31.

Daily records include a high of 75 from 1993 and a record low of 0 from 2005.

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Have a safe day.


Alan Crone