Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, November 27th 2013, 4:31 am
By: Alan Crone

Good Morning.  We're looking at another sunny but cold day with highs in the upper 30s near 40.  The winds will be light and the air will be dry.  Thanksgiving and Black Friday look great with temperatures gaining a few degrees for both overnight lows and daytime highs.  Our next major system will be arriving sometime late next week but a weak system will approach Sunday into Monday.  Travel across the southern and central plains states will remain in excellent shape today and through most of the weekend.  Travel along the East Coast today and tomorrow will be problematic due to on-going weather issues.   

We managed to hit the upper 40s yesterday afternoon before the cold front swept across the state bringing another taste of the cold air to our area.  Temperatures this morning will drop into the upper teens and lower 20s with light winds.  The big question today (which really isn't too big) is how warm to go for the afternoon highs?  We have several different solutions to attack the issue today with RAW NAM data suggesting about 40, the GFS Lamp around 37 and the MOs around 38 to 44.  Regardless of the computer suggestions and the temp I actually place for the high today, it will be quite chilly.  The good news is a surface ridge of high pressure will allow for light wind speeds and very little wind chill values.  Sunny sky will be the dominate feature with a high near 40. 

The surface ridge will slide east tonight and southwest surface winds will return Thursday, Thanksgiving morning with a minor warming trend for the afternoon.  After morning lows in the lower 20s we'll expect highs Thursday afternoon in the upper 40s near 50.  Sunshine will remain abundant with only a few high clouds skirting the northern third of the state.  Friday morning will start in the mid-20s with afternoon highs in the lower 50s along with south winds at 10 to 15 mph.  Black Friday Shopping will be fine weather wise despite a fast moving vort brushing the state during the day.  This will only produce a few clouds across the northern third of the state.  Regarding the shopping: I will not be joining the frenzy! 

The next upper level wave will approach the state this weekend resulting in pressure falls across southeastern Colorado and part of the plains.  This will cause our south winds to increase speeds in the 10 to 18 mph range and some low level moisture will attempt a meager return by the second half of the weekend.  Data has suggested a few showers or sprinkles may be possible Sunday but we think the higher likelihood will occur Sunday night into Monday morning across the eastern third of the state.  This pop will be represented by a 10% chance on the big 7 day planner.  The good news:  temperatures will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s for highs with morning lows in the lower 40s.  There will be no threat of any frozen precip for the early part of the week.  The bad news:  we're not even into winter yet and another major arctic air mass is a possibility late next week. 

The GFS and EURO have both been suggesting another chunk of very cold arctic air dislodging and moving southeast into the nation sometime late next week.  While it's impossible to write with any confidence regarding the specifics, the consistent solutions with many of the model runs point toward a better than average chance of this air-mass intrusion occurring sometime late next week. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 48 recorded at 2:50pm. There was a trace of snow recorded in the data from the pre-dawn hours.

The normal daily average high is 55 and the low is 35.

The daily record includes a high of 77 from 1927 and a low of 16 from 1938. 

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Have a great day.  

Alan Crone