Tuesday Morning Update

Tuesday, November 19th 2013, 4:42 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning.  Welcome to the Tuesday Morning edition.  We're in good shape weather-wise today but the winds will be picking up speed from the south at 10 to 25 mph later.  We'll have more cloud cover this morning compared to yesterday but the daytime highs will move into the lower and mid-60s this afternoon. The focus of the forecast remains on a strong cold front that will roll across the state Thursday bringing much colder air and some precipitation potential.   

This morning a surface ridge of high pressure located east of the state continues to lose its impact.  A surface low deepening across southeastern Colorado will impact our area today with increasing southeast winds by midday to early afternoon.  This low is forming in response to an upper level system approaching the inter-mountain west.  This trough will slide eastward across the middle part of the Nation tomorrow and allow much colder air to dislodge and slide southbound Wednesday night into Thursday.  The air mass may initially be more of a Canadian blend but a second surge of cold air Friday appears be to more of an arctic surge.  While the majority of the real-deal cold air will stay well east and northeast of the state, we will experience highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s Friday through the weekend.  Morning lows will drop into the mid or upper 30s Friday morning and possibly near freezing for a few hours Saturday morning.  Thursday will be the transition day moving from the 50s at midday to the lower 40s by late afternoon.  

The main problem regarding the end of the week continues to be any precipitation potential as the colder surge of air arrives.  The air mass is expected to remain very shallow with a southwest flow aloft over-running the shallow cold dome of air at the surface.  A few showers may occur Wednesday with the initial return of moisture across part of the state, but this chance remains low.  

The Thursday front will also bring a chance of showers and some thunder Thursday morning to northern OK followed by post-frontal rain Thursday afternoon and evening.  Some rain will continue Friday across part of the state.   

GFS data supports most if not all of the precipitation to be south of the state by Friday night while the EURO and DGEX extension supports a continuation of precip into Saturday morning to midday.  The later solutions would result in some freezing rain potential Saturday morning for a few hours across northern OK and some sleet or snow across the southern and central Kansas areas.  We're not too concerned with this possibility at this juncture in the forecast cycle as the spread of model data from run to run comparing GFS to EURO is wide.  The odds would support most of the precip exiting the region before the second surge of colder air arrives Friday night into Saturday morning.  I'll need to make some mention of this possibility "on-air" but I'll also make every effort to underscore the uncertainty of the forecast.  The incoming 06NAM this morning also indicates the possibility of some colder air Friday afternoon with some precip still near the region.  

After a very cold weekend, an upper level system in the southern jet will move across the desert southwest and begin influencing our weather early next week with additional rain chances.  The exact path of this system will have major impacts regarding what type of precipitation event we'll experience Monday into Tuesday.  The early runs have taken most of the system southward, but some data brings the cold core directly over the state.  I think we'll need to concern ourselves with the end of week system first before we try to tackle the next one following early next week! But we'll make mention of this system that will follow.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 65 recorded at 1:53pm.

The normal daily average high is 59 and low 38.

Our daily records include a high of 81 from 1908 and a low of 14 from 1937.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll also be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma news network affiliates across the state throughout the morning hours.  

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone