Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, November 14th 2013, 4:36 am
By: Alan Crone

We're basically moving into a warming trend for the next few days for both overnight lows and daytime highs.  We hit 21 yesterday morning for the official Tulsa low and we'll be close to the lower 70s by Sunday afternoon!  That's a mighty big swing!  We'll also be dealing with a few chances for some showers or storms with Saturday supporting the higher probability. We could have a few brief showers late tonight into pre-dawn Friday across part of NE OK but this chance remains low.  

This morning we are experiencing some sub-freezing temps in the sheltered valleys of OK along with a few upper 20s and lower 30s near the Tulsa metro.  South winds will be increasing speeds today around 10 to 25 mph with a few clouds at midday and more clouds late today.  A fast moving system will arrive later tonight into Friday morning that may produce some sprinkles or brief showers.  The moisture content is expected to remain low during the short term and very little precip will be expected.   

Saturday very strong south winds around 20 to 30 mph will bring low level moisture into the eastern half of the state with scattered thunderstorms a possibility.  The GFS continues to offer some increasing instabilities by afternoon and a few strong thunderstorms can't be ruled out even though the chance remains low.  The actual chance for precip across the eastern third of the state will remain near 40 to 50% with highs in the mid to upper 60s.  We currently have a 50% chance on the big 7 day planner and this may come down a notch.  

Sunday most of the moisture will be shunted eastward into Arkansas where strong to severe storms will be possible by Sunday afternoon or evening as a strong cold front approaches the region.  The chance for a shower or storm in NE OK Sunday evening is not high but it's not exactly zero either.  The bigger issue may be the colder to cooler air that flows back into the state by early Monday morning. 

The data continues to waffle around regarding the magnitude of the air mass for early next week.  We could easily stay in upper to mid-40s through Wednesday for highs with morning lows back into the lower and mid-20s Tuesday and Wednesday.  This was the suggestion from the handy dandy computer models a few days back.  But the actual computer numbers are trending slightly warmer with highs for Monday in the lower 50s but I'm more likely to keep the numbers below these suggestions for the next forecast cycle.  I would rather start low and move up then start up and move low! 

This pattern of cold air intrusions followed by a mild warm up appears likely to continue into next week.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 52 recorded at 3:26pm.  This was above our forecasted high.

The daily average high is 62 and the low is 40.

Our daily records include a high of79 recorded from 1989, 1964, and 1960.  The daily record low is 13 recorded on this date in 1916.  

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Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great day! 

Alan crone