Thursday Morning Update

A stout but dry cold front is sweeping across the state this morning bringing gusty north winds and a shot of colder air to the region.  Daytime highs will top out in the upper 50s along with north winds around 10 to 20 mph.  The dry and cold air mass will lead to some freezing and frost potential tomorrow morning (Friday) across a large portion of northern OK and southern Kansas.  Our friends from the NWS Tulsa office will issue a freeze watch for some counties across northern OK including the Tulsa county area.  You'll find this up to date list at the top of the weather page highlighted with a red banner. 

The next issue will be a fast moving upper air wave that should bring some showers to the region Saturday, but the overall coverage is still up for grabs.  We had a 10% pop yesterday, and I'm inclined to increase this probability to a 20 or even 30% chance for the Saturday morning to midday time period.  There should be a narrow window for some moisture return and the models have begun to suggest this may occur.  Highs Saturday would remain in the mid 60s with mostly to partly cloudy conditions.  I still think the higher coverage will end up south of Tulsa. 

Sunday into Monday we'll see a robust warm up with Monday afternoon highs approaching the upper 70s and lower 80s along with gusty south winds in advance of a strong storm system.  This upper level system will dive down through the inter mountain region allowing surface pressures to fall across the plains.  This means our wind speeds (from the south) will be increasing Monday.  Low level moisture will also attempt a big comeback Monday into Tuesday before a significant cold front arrives sometime next week.  The timing of the actual front remains highly in question.  These boundaries typically arrive faster and not slower than computer model suggestions.  But the frontal passage is just the beginning of the controversy.

GFS data has been suggesting moisture from Pacific storm Raymond may move up and over the Mexican plateau and into the state around Tuesday or Wednesday.  The 00z model from yesterday also developed a secondary surface low Monday into Tuesday across the northwestern OK area and effectively causes the boundary to stall for almost an entire day before pushing away from the state Wednesday night into Thursday.  This would result in a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain potential Wednesday and Thursday morning across far southeastern and eastern OK.  

This morning the GFS wants to bring the boundary across the state Wednesday. 

The 00z EURO run from yesterday was more progressive with the cold front compared to the old GFS run.  It did not ingest a large amount of Pacific moisture, but it brought a significant upper level closed low across the state ( or pretty close to the state) Wednesday into Thursday morning.  This would create the potential for some additional precipitation along with much colder air compared to the GFS suggestions. 

This morning the 00z EURO run is now the slow model.  This would mean windy and warm conditions Tuesday and Wednesday before bringing the system across the state Thursday with a shot of strong to near severe storms.  Goodness!  The extended forecast is a mess.

Here's our compromise for the forecast package today:  We'll bring the front across the area Wednesday with decent and increasing rain and storm chances. Thursday is day 8 ( and not on our 7 day planner) so we'll be spared the possible flip for another day regarding the end of next week.   Obviously major changes will be possible with this portion of the forecast during the next few days.  There may be numerous wild and crazy statements floating around the social media circles regarding this system for next week.  We're many days "out" and we'll all have plenty of time to search for the truth with this system.  We'll keep you posted.

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 67 recorded at 4:14pm.

The daily average high is 71 and the low is 48.

Our daily records include a high of 89 from 2003 and a low of 24 from 1917.

You'll find me on Facebook and twitter.

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma news Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone
KOTV