Friday Morning Update

Friday, August 30th 2013, 4:36 am

Good morning and welcome to Friday. We are looking forward to the Labor Day holiday weekend but temperatures will remain very summer like in the short term.  Our mid-level Ridge of high pressure remains anchored near the state and this will bring very warm to hot conditions today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be near 100 from Tulsa to the west and upper 90's across eastern Oklahoma.  Model data indicates 100s both today and tomorrow.   So far there have been no official 100 degree days in August for Tulsa but this may change very soon. We may have a break for the early part of next week as a front arriving Sunday could bring some short term relief. 

This morning a mid-level disturbance is located northeast of Tulsa and will move southward across the far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas vicinity today. This may be strong enough for a few showers in storms today across extreme eastern Oklahoma but the odds would support these staying mostly in Arkansas.   Later this evening a few showers or storms will be possible across the Red River Valley of southeastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. The probability remains very low near 10 % today to our east and 20 % chance tonight across far southern OK.  The probability for any storm activity in Tulsa today remains extremely low.   

 Saturday into Sunday the mid-level Ridge will be anchored to the southwest of our area allowing a Northwest flow across southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma. A week cold front will move from the northern part of the country to near southern Kansas by Sunday morning.  Some shower and thunderstorm activity seems likely near and behind this but the coverage should remain spotty.   Sunday the cold front will move southward bringing a slight chance for scattered thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma.   Monday the cold front will more than likely be located south of the Tulsa vicinity.  There will continue to be a chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms activity on Monday, but the higher probability maybe along the Red River Valley.  

 The extended data support another strong cold front approaching the southern plains by the end of next week. This will bring a significant cool down to the northern high plains, the mid western part of the United States, and the upper Missouri Valley. Our temperatures early next week may stay near the seasonal averages. Temperatures may rise  a few degrees by the middle of next week possibly cooling again by next weekend. 

 The beginning of September "usually "signals a major transition in the upper atmosphere.   By the end of September the average high is 78 in the average low is 56!  Bring it on! 

 Yesterday's official high temperature in Tulsa with 98 degrees recorded at 3:32pm.  The daily average high is currently 91 and the average low is 69.  Our daily records include a high of 107 from 1947 and a record low of 50 degrees from 1915. 

 Precipitation for the year remains at 23.38 inches which is 3.87 inches below normal precipitation for the year of 27 point 25 inches. 

 You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. I'll also be discussing the statewide in regional weather forecast on numerous radio Oklahoma news network affiliates. 

 Thank you for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog. 

 Have a super great day. 

Alan Crone