Friday Morning Update

Friday, August 23rd 2013, 4:28 am
By: Alan Crone

Our summer-time pattern remains locked in across the state but as posted here during the past few days, we anticipate a small change in the positioning of the upper level ridge that may allow for a few showers on the OK-Arkansas state line area this weekend.  There may also be a few showers or storms today across the northeast TX and far southeastern OK vicinity.  The chance for our area this weekend will be extremely low and only represented on our 7 day planner with a 10% pop this weekend. Late yesterday afternoon we had one very small shower near Westville, OK.  This morning we're seeing signs of a few small showers located across southern OK.  I don't think I'll include any probabilities for today on our 7 day planner, but we can't totally rule out a small shower or two this morning somewhere across the southern third of the area.

The low level moisture flow is increasing slightly today compared to the previous few  days as easterly flow brings some increase in the dew points across the eastern third of the state.  Some model data continues to hint at a few showers or storms as this moisture increases and the center of the ridge slides northeast through Sunday evening.  The increase of moisture and the expected increase in cloud cover will result in highs in the lower 90s this weekend with morning lows in the lower to mid-70s.

The data also support the mid-level ridge remaining intact and near our area for most if not all of next week resulting in a continuation of mainly hot and dry weather.  The EURO data attempts to strengthen the ridge slightly which should allow for a slight increase in surface temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.  We'll keep the highs during this time period near 96 with heat index values nearing 100.  The recent rainfall and abnormally green vegetation for late August will keep us below the 100 degree mark regarding the actual air temperature across northern OK but it may a close call regardless.

The pattern may not change significantly until the first week of September. 

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 93 from 2:41pm.
The normal daily average high is 92 and the low is 70.

Our daily records include a high of 108 from 1936 and a low of 51 from 1920.

Precip for the year is at 23.38 inches which is -3.17 below normal compared to normal precip to date of 26.55 inches.

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I'll also be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning and early afternoon hours.

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone