Monday Morning Update

Good Morning.  Our weather pattern for the next few days will be a mix of typical July heat and humidity plus a chance for some occasional storm chances. The upper air flow will be positioned across the state to bring a storm complex or two across the central plains that could brush southern Kansas and Northern OK.  The timing of these features will be the focus of the forecast for the short term.  

The radar is void of precipitation this morning across our immediate area at 4am but earlier this morning we did have a few storms located from Delaware to Ottawa County.  Yesterday morning we had a broad complex of thunderstorm activity with some rain positioned across southern Kansas and northern OK.  This lead to some flash flooding issues across portions of southeastern Osage county with 4 to 6 inches of rainfall in few locations.  Some other locations across southern Tulsa County southward received very little precipitation while the northern portion of the county received 1.76 inches of rain.  We will have a slight chance of a few isolated storms this morning across southeastern Kansas and part of Northern OK, but this chance will remain low.   

Later today we'll have a slight chance of a few thunderstorms across Eastern OK and western Arkansas with daytime highs in the mid to upper 90s.  The temperature heat index values will be moving to near 100 to 105 across the region.  While these readings are high, they do not meet or exceed the heat index advisory criteria.  Winds will be somewhat light today but may allow for some winds from 8 to 15 mph from the southwest.  

Most available data indicates the possibility for a storm complex to approach the area either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning across southern Kansas or northern OK.  We'll keep the probability due to the run to run consistency in the model data, but keep in mind things can and do change. The exact trajectory of these types of events can be tricky, but it appears that Northeastern OK and Southeastern Kansas along with northwestern Arkansas would be in the running for this possible storm complex.  

This morning both the EURO and the GFS are suggesting a strong short wave will develop in the mid-levels of the atmosphere Thursday and spread southeast into the state by Friday.  This will cause a surface area of low pressure to develop across northern OK by at least Thursday and also move southeast with time.  The various models depict differences regarding the exact outcome of precipitation with the EURO being the most aggressive.  This scenario would lead to a high chance of thunderstorms Friday across the northern third of the state and the southern third of Kansas.  Our probability currently resides at 30% but may be rising with subsequent forecast cycles as confidence and run to run consistency would lead to a higher confidence.  

The normal high is 94 and the low is 73.  Our high temperature yesterday in Tulsa was  90 recorded at 6:39pm.   Daily records include a high of 109 from 1974 and a low of 57 from 1970. 

The normal precipitation to date is 17.77 and we are currently -5.86 below as of today.  Rainfall for the month is now at 2.20 inches for Tulsa International Airport.  The airport location received 1.76 inches of rainfall Sunday.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter@alancrone 

You'll hear my state-wide and regional weather forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network Affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.  

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV