Monday Morning Update

We finally experienced some very tranquil "San Diego" like weather the past two days with sunny afternoons and cool mornings with a few clouds.  We're going to move back into an active weather pattern once again through at least Thursday morning, and some thunderstorm activity may at times be strong to severe.  The next few days don't appear to be as volatile as the past two weeks storm systems, but we can't rule out some severe weather with during the next few days. 

The weather for most of the day looks great for northeastern OK.  We'll be experiencing mostly sunny conditions with highs in the lower 80s.  East and southeast winds will return by midday to early afternoon in the 10 to 15 mph range helping to bring low level moisture back into the state.  A mid-level low will begin to influence the central plains states back through the intermountain region and this will help to create a surface area of low pressure across either southeastern Colorado or possibly as far south as northwestern Oklahoma.  We do have a few short term hi-res models attempting to break out an isolated shower or storm later this afternoon across the area.  I may or may not include this 10% call on the big map today.  We don't like surprises, but we don't like to populate the 7 day with 10% pops.  

The upper air flow will be basically from the west-northwest to the east-southeast.  This weak northwest flow is a normal upper air flow for early June across the state and will bring a few disturbances into the area through Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  This pattern, from a climatological standpoint, is conducive to develop mesoscale convective systems ( clusters of storms) to our northwest and move these across our area.  We usually see these systems impacting our area by late night and early morning.  

We're looking for a small cluster of strong to severe storms to develop tonight across southeastern Colorado and move into northwestern or central OK around midnight into the early Tuesday morning hours.  Some of the hi-res model data suggests this complex may weaken before it moves totally into our area.  I'll keep a slight chance in the forecast for later tonight, overnight, and into the early Tuesday morning hours. 

Tuesday afternoon and evening, a few additional storms may attempt to develop across part of northern OK along or near a weak north to south boundary ( cold front) that will eventually slide southward by Wednesday night into Thursday. The deep layer shear (changing of wind direction and speed with increasing height) should be sufficient to produce some severe storm activity, but it's unclear to the exact type and location of severe weather we may experience at this point in the forecast cycle.  We should have a higher confidence regarding the forecast parameters during the next 12 to 24 hours. 

Either Wednesday night or Thursday morning, the cold front gets moving southward and will bring drier and more stable air to the state Thursday afternoon and evening.  This air mass will stick around for at least a few days with pleasant and calm weather before another chance of storms will return by late Saturday night into Sunday morning.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was a nice 71 recorded at 4:20pm.

The normal daily average high is 84  and the low is 64.

Our daily records include a high of 101 from 1911 and a low of 52 from both 1946 and 1922.

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I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates throughout the state this morning.

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone