Tuesday Morning Update

Welcome to Tuesday.  Our weather pattern for the next few days will be unsettled across the state, with the better chances for thunderstorms across northern OK occurring Wednesday night into Thursday, Thursday night into Friday and for part of Saturday.  Some of these storms will be strong to severe.  Before the storms arrive in our immediate area, storms will be likely across western OK both today and tomorrow.  Wind shear, instability, and potential energy will be supportive of severe weather across the western portions of the state today and tomorrow.  All modes of severe weather will be possible to our west.   

We had a few isolated and elevated showers/storms yesterday across extreme northern OK and we may have a few isolated showers or storms this morning through midday across part of the region.  We'll keep a 10 to 20% pop on the map this morning for this slim possibility.   

The EURO upper air chart depicts a strong upper level trough approaching our area by Thursday with the feature taking a negative tilt toward to the southern and central plains.  The upper level flow closely resembles that of last week's severe weather outbreak, but the main features are slightly northward and also slightly weaker.  The GFS is also slightly northward compared to the EURO, but both data sets will support our ongoing forecast of increasing thunderstorm chances Wednesday night into Thursday.  As the upper trough slides across the central portion of the nation Friday morning, both data sets also support the low becoming circular and driving another disturbance around the base of the system that will drive a surface front into the state either sometime Saturday.  As this process occurs, the storm chances will increase again across the state, more so northeastern and eastern OK, with strong to severe storm chances along with moderate to heavy rainfall potential.  

 Temps will be warm with strong south winds in the 15 to 30 mph range today and for the end of the week before the front passes Saturday bringing a minor cool down into the upper 70s near 80 Saturday afternoon into Sunday.  Somewhat drier area will arrive behind the Saturday frontal passage.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 84 recorded at 4:10pm.  The daily record high is 94 from 2012 and 1926.   The low is 45 from both 1947 and 1907. 

Our normal daily average high is 82 and the low is 63.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  Twitter@alancrone

https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

You'll hear my state-wide and regional weather forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the noon hour.

I'll also be discussing the weather this morning with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News in Tulsa. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV