Wednesday Morning Update

Day two of our wet and cold pattern is underway.  The rain (with a few embedded thunderstorms across southern sections) will continue today and tonight before ending early tomorrow morning across far southeastern or east central OK.  Temps will remain well below the seasonal average before warming into the upper 60s or lower 70s Friday.  More spring-like weather will return this weekend with mid-70s, but another upper level system may also be nearing the state with a chance of storms early next week. 

Rainfall amounts have been highest south of the Tulsa metro as expected along the I-40 corridor where some 1 to near 3 inch amounts have already occurred.  The Tulsa metro is now only at .52  for the event with an additional .20 to .50 inch possible before Thursday morning.  I must also state that some locations northeast of Tulsa, possibly along and northeast of the I-44 corridor may see light showers or sprinkles with heavier precipitation located across southern OK and north Texas.  

Temps will remain on the cold side with morning lows in the upper 30s and afternoon highs in the lower to mid-40s for today.  Some slightly warmer air will be possible across southern OK.  The RAW NAM output appears in great shape for most of the region.  This would mean highs today in the metro around 43 to 45 with some locations nearing 50 along the Red River Valley.  Northeast surface winds in the 10 to 20 mph range will be expected today and north to northwest winds by Thursday afternoon.  Tomorrows highs could go from the upper 50s into the lower 60s depending upon the amount and duration of cloud cover. Clouds will of course remain optically thick over the region through Thursday midday and probably into the early evening hours, but a few sun breaks could be possible late tomorrow afternoon along or west of the I-35 corridor.   

Friday will end up being a super nice day with sunshine, highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s, and south to southeast surface winds around 10 to 15 mph.  The upper air pattern will quickly transition to southwesterly flow aloft and this will bring more changes to the state by early next week. 

A surface area of low pressure will quickly form Sunday across NW OK and a few showers or storms may be possible Sunday afternoon or evening along the OK-Kansas state line and possibly a few scattered storms across Eastern OK.  This chance will remain low.  If moisture can make a big comeback Sunday, a few severe storms would be possible.   

A higher chance for storms, including severe weather, will occur around Monday or Tuesday of next week.  A stronger upper level chunk of energy will draw near the southern plains and low level moisture will be rapidly returning across the state.  The early look at the wind profile would support the deep layer shear needed for severe weather.  Plus this is the normal ramp up time period for the increase in strong to severe storms regarding our spring weather. 

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 44 recorded at 11:52AM.

The normal daily average high is 68 and the low is 45.

Our daily records include a high of 88 recorded on 2011 and 1965 on this date and the low of 23 recorded in 1975.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

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I'll be discussing the weather today with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News in Tulsa.

You'll also hear my state-wide and regional weather forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliate stations throughout the state this morning through the noon hour.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone
KOTV