Another cold start to our day this morning as the first map on the right shows. However, today and Monday will be much milder before the next cool front arrives during the day Monday. The colder air behind that system will be arriving Monday night giving us another couple of cool days for Tue and Wed before things start warming back up again. That is pretty typical of this time of year as we are easing on into the Spring season and periodic cool fronts arrive to interrupt the gradual warming trend. At least the air behind this next cool front will not be as cold nor as long lasting as we experienced all last week.
For today, look for lots of sunshine, brisk southerly winds and afternoon temperatures up around the 60 degree mark after starting off below freezing this morning. The warmer temperatures together with humidity levels dropping to near 30% this afternoon, the gusty southerly winds, and the dormant vegetation also add up to an enhanced fire danger.
Southerly winds near 20 mph will continue through the overnight hours so Monday morning will start off much milder with morning lows only in the mid 40s. The next cool front will arrive by early afternoon and should be through the state by that evening. Gusty southerly winds in advance of the front will shift to gusty NW winds behind the front. This system is arriving too quickly for there to be much in the way of moisture for it to work with although cannot rule out a few showers on the cool side that evening/night for the more eastern counties. Daytime highs should make it into the 60s and possibly even some near 70 for the more southern counties before the cooler air arrives.
Gusty NW winds and clearing skies on Tuesday along with daytime highs in the 40s to near 50 will be followed by another cool but sunny day on Wednesday. Morning lows should start off below the freezing mark then moderate into the upper 40s to near 50 along with northerly winds.
Thursday will mark the beginning of another warming trend with daytime highs near 60 and a return to gusty southerly winds. It will be warmer yet for the rest of the week and the weekend with morning lows back into the 40s and daytime highs in the 60s. However, this coming weekend will also be affected by a potentially very wet system coming our way. Notice the QPF map on the right which is valid through Sunday morning. It is showing some generous rainfall for the more western part of the state but keep in mind that its main impact on this side of the state will probably not occur until after that time frame. By that I mean that if this system progresses on eastward as expected, the eastern side of the state stands to get some locally heavy rainfall later in the day Sunday or perhaps into the day Monday.
At those time frames, the longer range guidance starts to diverge regarding the timing, location, and intensity of the main storm system aloft. With that in mind, will be somewhat conservative regarding rain chances and amounts for the coming weekend until there is better consistency. However, all trends at this time suggest this system will have the potential to produce some locally very heavy rainfall.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.