After another very chilly day today, look for much warmer conditions for Sunday /Monday, another cool down for Tue/Wed, followed by another warm up going into the next weekend. Despite these temperature swings, the overall pattern will be rather quiet with little or no mention of rain until next weekend. In fact, the QPF map on the right which is valid through Saturday morning of next week is starting to pick up on what may well turn out to be a very wet system for next weekend. Since this particular product only goes up to Saturday morning, then it is only showing some relatively light rainfall totals through that time frame. The system of interest will likely be having a more significant influence beyond that time frame. More about that later.
For today, despite lots of sunshine, northerly winds of 10-12 mph and snow on the ground up in KS will result in another very cool day for this time of year. Our normal daytime high is in the upper 50s and we will struggle to reach the mid 40s today. Fair skies and light winds will make for another cold start to Sunday morning with lows in the 20s. Sunday afternoon will see an increase in the high level cirrus type clouds but their optical thickness should be low enough to allow enough sunshine for temperatures to make it to around 60. SE winds will increase to 20 mph or more which together with dormant vegetation and a relative humidity dropping to near 30% will make for an enhanced fire danger.
A cool front will be arriving during the day Monday with gusty southerly winds shifting to gusty NW winds. The brisk southerly winds for Sunday night and into Monday means temperatures will only drop into the 40s to start the day and the cooler air will not be arriving till later Monday or that night. That means temperatures may reach the lower 60s on Monday. Despite the front passing through the state, it will not have much moisture to work with so will go with only a very slight chance of a few showers for the more eastern counties.
Tuesday and Wednesday will then be cooler than normal with daytime highs in the 40s to lower 50s under mostly sunny skies and a brisk northerly wind.
Gusty southerly winds will return on Thursday to start warming things back up and what looks to be a significant storm system aloft will be dropping into the southern Rockies as we head into the coming weekend. So far, the longer range guidance has been remarkably consistent in placement and timing and if those trends continue we will be looking at a very wet system.
Given the time frame we are considering, a lot can change between now and then so stay tuned and check back for updates.