A potentially very wet system coming our way by the middle of this week may well put a good dent in the ongoing drought situation. Notice the first map on the right which is the QPF map valid though this coming Friday morning. If this verifies, then much of the state will pick up at least ½-1" of rain and some locations, particularly the more SE counties stand to get much more than that. However, notice the second map on the right which depicts how much moisture is needed to get rid of our drought. Much of the western side of our state needs 6-9" and the eastern side 9-12" or more. Obviously, we do not want to get all of that at once, but if this mid-week system can drop an inch or two or even more, it sure would provide some much needed relief.
The system responsible for our rain chances is still off the coast of southern California this morning which creates some uncertainty regarding its timing, strength, and location as it moves across the data poor regions of Northern Mexico over the next couple of days. The encouraging thing is that the last few data runs have been much more consistent in handling this system which leads to increased confidence in it being a good rain maker. By the way, since it is coming from the SW, there is not going to be any cold air for it to work with so this will be entirely a liquid event. In fact, would not be surprised if there are some decent thunderstorms by the time it is all said and done.
Between now and then, today's sunny, cool conditions with highs in the 40s will give way to more moderate weather during the coming week. Tonight will be clear and cold with lows in the 20s, but a return to brisk southerly winds Monday should get us into the lower 50s. Look for increasing high level cirrus clouds during the day as well.
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy and mild with lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s and there may be some showers move into the extreme southern counties by late in the day. Wednesday and Thursday still look to be the most likely days for rain and a few showers may linger into Friday morning. Temperatures will be very mild with morning lows in the 40s and daytime highs in the 50s. If the system moves out according to current projections, then Friday may even see enough sunshine for daytime highs to make it into the lower 60s.
Another cold front should then arrive late Saturday with only a slight chance of some showers. Look for a brisk northerly winds and a return to more seasonal temperatures on Sunday as well.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.