Thursday Morning Update

The cold air remains this morning across the state, especially across the snow pack areas of southern OK, but temperatures will move up into the upper 30s and lower 40s this afternoon with the return of southerly breezes.  A sun-cloud mix will be present today and south winds may increase this afternoon from 10 to 20 mph.  Our next system quickly brushes the area Thursday evening into Friday morning with a very slight chance of light drizzle, sleet, or a snow flurry or two . A stronger system may approach either Monday into Tuesday or Wednesday into the latter half of next week.  

The tale of two states continues with a healthy snow pack across the southern half and no snow across northern OK.  Roadways are still considered slick and hazardous along secondary travel ways in southern OK while the main interstates and highways have made good progress.  A reminder for travelers this morning:  the slush yesterday afternoon is ice this morning across the south.  Use caution on bridges and overpasses.  

The next upper level wave will quickly traverse the region during the next 24 hours.  Data suggest the main impact will reside east of the state with precipitation, but some very light sleet or flurries may be possible Friday morning for a few hours.  The temperatures will be near or below freezing and could produce some minor impacts across extreme eastern Ok or more so Western Ark.  We've kept a slight probability in the forecast. 

The temps will move closer to the lower 40s Saturday and then into the mid or upper 40s Sunday for afternoon readings as the next upper level system develops across the western half of the country.  As has been the case for the better part of the last year, extended data has some controversy.   

The GFS attempts to progressively bring a short wave across the area Monday into Tuesday and consequently produces quite a bit of rainfall across southeastern and eastern OK Monday through the evening hours.  EURO data attempts to close off the upper level system and slowly bring the closed low across the southern US Wednesday through Friday.  This would create a prolonged period of some rain Monday through Thursday followed by some colder air and possibly some wintry precip Friday morning.  The confidence level is low on either of the two scenarios for the end of next week but regardless of the later period, the rain chances will be increasing for Monday.  I'll keep a decent mention of precip scattered across the Monday through Wednesday time period with cool temps.  

Yesterday the official high in Tulsa was 33 recorded at 3:26pm.

The normal daily averages include a high of 47 and a low of 28. 

The daily records include a high of 77 recorded in 1946 and a low of 8 recorded on this date in 1925.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

http://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter  @alancrone

I'll also be discussing the weather this morning with Dan Potter on the KRMG morning news and on numerous Radio Oklahoma Network stations across the state.

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather discussion.  I appreciate that you stopped by this morning.  Enjoy the weather!  And be safe traveling across southern OK over the snow pack areas.

Alan Crone

KOTV