Monday Morning Update

Monday, December 17th 2012, 5:37 am
By: Alan Crone

Sunday was a wonderful weather day with gorgeous sunshine, light winds, and highs in the 60s.  Our weather pattern will once again become somewhat active over the next few days, but the question of the quality and depth of moisture remains.   

Our weather today will feature the possibility of early morning fog across NE OK and NW Ark. Additionally some light sprinkles may be possible across extreme northern OK and southern Kansas as an upper level short wave quickly moves across the region. As this short waves passes, clouds will rapidly clear from the area allowing sunny and cool conditions with highs in the mid to upper 50s.  Northwest winds around 10 mph will be present this morning with southwest winds later this afternoon and evening.  

A strong upper level system across the Pacific Northwest will cause our pressure to fall to the west and a surface area of low pressure will develop across NW OK by Tuesday afternoon or evening.  Our winds will respond from south and southeast in the range of 15 to 30 mph by Wednesday creating an elevated fire danger due to dry vegetation and the gusty winds.   

Wednesday the surface low will begin traversing northern OK and southern Kansas as the main upper level system moves across the central plains.  A dry line type feature will sweep from the west to east and will attempt to fire off thunderstorms by Wednesday afternoon or evening.  The deeper moisture will once again be located to our east or southeast but we'll be in the running for a few showers or storms along the OK-Arkansas state line.  If the moisture can return fast enough before the system arrives, there may be small window for a few strong to severe storms.  

As the upper level system passes Wednesday night into pre-dawn Thursday morning, colder air will move directly over Northern OK and southern Kansas.  Any moisture will change from liquid precept to light snow.  No significant accumulations are expected in OK, but some light snow is a possibility along the OK-Kansas state line.  I do think there may be some accumulation northward across parts of central Kansas where some winter weather advisories may be required along the I-70 corridor. 

Colder air will stick around Thursday and Friday before moderating into the weekend with highs Thursday in the upper 40s or lower 50s and temps this weekend moving into the 50s for afternoon highs.  

The data ( both EURO and GFS) both suggest the active weather pattern will continue through Christmas into the early portion of January.  These wild swings from cold air to above seasonal highs could set the stage for thunderstorms followed by much colder air around the Christmas holiday with the possibility of some precipitation at the same time.  Stay tuned. We'll be refining the forecast everyday as we draw closer to the Christmas.


Yesterday's high in Tulsa was 68 recorded at 2:09pm.

The normal daily average high is 49 and the low is 29.

Our daily records include a high of 78 from 1908 and a low of 2 from 1952.


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Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather discussion-blog.

Have a super great day.


Alan Crone