This has been another very mild day today as you can see from the max/min temperature map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. We are now half way through the month of December and it should be no surprise that we are running well above normal; in fact, nearly 9 degrees above normal so far. That maintains the pace we have seen for much of this year and is making this calendar year more and more of a lock to be the warmest year on record for here in Tulsa.
Of course, you know there will be some cold, wintry weather come along eventually and it is starting to look like this coming Wednesday night into the morning hours of Thursday could be a little more interesting. As I mentioned in the morning discussion, a cold front will be arriving Wednesday evening/night with at least a slight chance of showers and possibly some thunder ahead of it. I also mentioned that on the backside of the system there will be the potential for some flurries or periods of light snow. It now appears that a dusting will be possible as far south as the 412 corridor with the potential for some light accumulations further north into KS. It does not look like anything to get too excited about, but the system will be closely monitored for any changes.
Between now and then, very mild conditions will continue to be the general rule. A weak boundary has moved into the state and will become diffuse during the day Monday. Light N to NW winds behind it will veer back around to a more SW direction by afternoon, but that should be just enough to hold our daytime highs into the 50s, which is still well above normal. The early morning hours should see a stratus cloud deck, possibly even some patchy fog for a few locations, and temperatures in the 30s. The clouds will quickly burn off leaving us with mostly sunny skies by afternoon.
Tuesday and Wednesday will have southerly winds which will become strong and gusty on Wednesday. This will lead to a high fire danger potential before the front arrives that evening/night. That will also result in very mild conditions with highs well into the 60s both days. Unfortunately, the better quality moisture will likely be further east of us again, but will carry about a 30% chance of showers and perhaps even some thunder for the more eastern counties late in the day Wednesday. Then, as the colder air moves in that night, the possible changeover to some snow for the more northern counties as mentioned above.
Our skies on Thursday should be clearing rapidly from W-E but despite the afternoon sunshine, gusty NW winds will make for a raw day with temperatures only in the low-mid 40s. After that, the start of winter on Friday and on into the weekend will see more seasonal temperatures with morning lows below freezing and daytime highs in the 50s. Those afternoon temperatures are still above normal though.
As mentioned in earlier discussions, the Christmas Holiday period of Mon-Tue is very uncertain and the data runs so far today have not done anything to change that. One of the runs has us warm, windy and wet for Monday and turning cooler on Tuesday; another has us warm, windy and dry on Monday and getting wet on Tuesday. In either event, our prospects for a White Christmas are pretty much in the slim to none category.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.