Wednesday Morning Update

A quick look at the regional sat image this morning reveals very little cloud cover across the southern plains and we should expect another sunny and pleasant weather day with highs in the lower to mid 50s.  Computer numbers ( MOS) are suggesting highs around 54-55 and I see no big reason to deviate from these promptings at this point.  RAW NAM numbers are surprisingly about 4 degrees cooler today ( 51) compared to the big brother numbers, but we're going to stick with our previous forecast of highs around 54 for many locations today across Eastern OK.   

The pattern will support a relative warming trend for the next few days for both afternoon highs and morning lows as the next storm system draws closer to the area. The nearly zonal flow will buckle by Thursday allowing a strong upper level system currently near the Pac Northwest to dive southward and then eject across the southwestern U.S Friday.   As this strong storm system approaches the area Friday night into Saturday morning, low level moisture may once again be of poor quality.  We'll continue to keep a slight chance for a few showers and storms for this time period. Higher local dew points may end up along the Red River into North Texas.

The extended data also supports the possibility of a clipper type system diving down through the central plains either Monday or Tuesday with a shot of cold air and the possibility for some very light precipitation across southeastern Kansas, extreme northeastern OK, and northwestern Arkansas by Monday night into Tuesday morning.  The run to run consistency in the various data as been poor ( surprise) and we'll only keep a slight probability in the forecast for this time period.  The temp forecast may undergo some "tweaking" for the next few days, but we think the trend of becoming colder for Monday and Tuesday will be the course to follow.

Yesterdays high was 51 in Tulsa.  The normal average high is 50 and the low is 30.

Daily records include a high of 73 from 1924 and a low of 3 from 1962.

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Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather blog.

Alan Crone

KOTV