Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, December 5th 2012, 5:10 am
By: Alan Crone

We're in store for a super great weather day across Northern OK and most of the southern plains today with highs in the lower to mid-60s with plenty of sunshine.  Winds will be relatively light today across Eastern OK with a south breeze returning across the western half of the state in the 15 mph range.  Windy and warmer conditions are likely Thursday with highs nearing the upper 60s near 70.  The upper air pattern is expected to undergo a significant change by the end of the week allowing for much colder air to surge across the nation this weekend and early next week.  

The first portion of the forecast has a high level of confidence as a weak boundary will arrive Friday afternoon with a slight chance of a shower or possibly a thunderstorm across extreme eastern OK and western Ark Friday night.  The higher low level moisture content will be located to our east, but we may have a shower or two near or east of Tulsa.  I'll keep the pop around 30% for Friday evening into Saturday pre-dawn, but this pop may be slightly optimistic on my part. It appears the higher likelihood will reside with our neighbors in Arkansas.  

The second half of the forecast has a lower confidence, including the Sunday time period and the position of the "Friday boundary" as it may possibly move slightly northward by Sunday.  The Friday front could waffle slightly northward by Sunday placing most of the Northern OK area on the warm side of the boundary with southwest winds and highs in the mid to upper 60s.  Southern Kansas would remain on the cool side of the front with highs in the lower 50s.  Another scenario has the front south of Tulsa both Saturday and Sunday with north winds and highs also in the lower 50s. 

 The second and more significant cold front would arrive Sunday midday to early afternoon bringing an arctic type air mass back to the state with temperatures possibly 20 degrees below the season averages for early next week. Data this morning would suggest the warmer part of the day occurring early Sunday morning with temps falling into the lower 40s by Sunday afternoon.  Additionally, the threat for some wintry precip had been a slight possibility for northern OK based on prior runs of data.  GFS data has shown very little run to run consistency regarding precip possibilities as the upper level trough moves across the state.  EURO runs have been more consistent in developing a winter weather signature for the time period across western OK, but last night's run has now shifted more in-line with the GFS meaning a faster arrival of the colder air Sunday with minimal precipitation chances. We'll continue to keep a slight chance of precip for this period of Sunday evening into Monday, but for now, the prudent call is to keep the mention of any real snow out of the forecast for our immediate area.   

Yesterday's high in Tulsa was 65 recorded at 2:07pm.

The normal daily average high is 52 and the low is 32.

Daily records include a high of 77 recorded in 1989 and 1956 and a low of 10 from 1950.


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Have a super great day!

Alan Crone