As mentioned in yesterday's discussion, our prospects for any short term relief from the ongoing drought are pretty much in the slim to none category. The map on the right is what we refer to as a QPF(Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) and is valid through this coming Friday morning. It is obvious that we are pretty much high and dry with only a very weak QPF signal for the extreme eastern counties through that period. That weak signal is due to a slight chance of some light showers on Monday as another cold front pushes through the state. The chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall is only on the order of 20% and any rain which does occur will be on the light side.
That cool front will bring another shot of colder air our way, but it will be short lived and temperatures will be quickly rebounding as the week wears on. Look for a very pleasant day today with lots of sunshine, southerly breezes, and temperatures moderating into the 60s which will be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. The cold front will be slowly making its way into the more NW counties late this afternoon and gradually on across the state overnight and on Monday. As a result, our winds will be from the S and SE for much of today and into the night, becoming more E later tonight, and then NE to N Monday morning. By Monday afternoon those northerly winds will become strong and gusty with winds of 20 mph or more and the colder air will be settling in.
We will also have mostly cloudy skies for Monday and along with those gusty northerly winds will make for a tricky temperature forecast. Tonight will be on the mild side with lows near 40 and it still looks like temperatures should make it into the lower 50s by around the noon hour before those stronger northerly winds and the colder air makes its presence known. That should produce falling afternoon temperatures with the warmest time of the day around noon and then back into the low-mid 40s by late afternoon.
Tuesday will then be a chilly day with morning lows in the 20s and a daytime high near 50, but at least the winds will be rather light and from a northerly direction. Wednesday will see the start of a warming trend which is expected to last through the coming weekend as our winds return to the south. The combination of brisk southerly winds, warmer temperatures, and the ongoing drought could also make for some enhanced fire danger weather during the coming week. As mentioned earlier, the prospects for any rainfall of significance are in the slim to none category for the foreseeable future.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.