Now that the month of October is coming to an end, a look back reveals some interesting tidbits of information. Although the day is not quite over yet, we already know that the month will end as the first month in which the average temperature was below normal since September of last year. We also know that the Jan-Oct time frame for this year is the warmest on record. Whether or not that remains the case for the calendar year will depend on how the next two months play out, so we will see.
Of course, it is also too dry, much too dry in fact. Notice the QPF(Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) map on the right valid through this coming Monday morning. Obviously, there is not much hope for any rain of consequence during that time frame.
At least the weather will be perfect for the trick or treaters this evening. Fair skies, light winds and temperatures in the 60s and possibly even the upper 50s for the outlying areas will make for some very pleasant conditions to be out and about.
Thursday will be a little warmer as we will have abundant sunshine and a light southerly wind will be returning. That should get us back into the 70s and possibly near 80 for the more western counties. Friday will be warm and breezy with a gusty S to SW wind, lots of sunshine, and daytime highs that are expected to be back into the 80s. That combination together with the low humidity levels and dormant vegetation will create an enhanced fire danger situation.
A cool front will be arriving early Saturday morning, but it is not expected to be much of a weather maker. The guidance today is bringing it through the state even more quickly than first thought, but that also makes it less likely that adequate moisture will be in place when it arrives. As a result, will go with just a slight 20% chance of a shower/storm and that will be primarily for the more southern counties. It will return our winds to a northerly direction which will get temperatures back to near or slightly below normal for the weekend and into early next week.
That will be followed by another warming trend before a stronger system looks to be arriving in time for the following weekend. It is still too early to say just how strong that system will be, but at least there are some indications from the longer range guidance that it could be a fairly significant storm system. Not going to go out on a limb with any specifics just yet, will take wait and see approach but at least there is some hope out there for precipitation.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.