A cold front will rapidly move across the area today bringing gusty northwest winds and cooler air to the region. A few isolated storms will be possible across extreme eastern OK with the higher chances across Arkansas. If a mature updraft can develop, severe storms would be possible, but the coverage of thunderstorms across eastern OK is expected to be very small. The front will clear the southeastern portion of the state by early afternoon bringing fall like weather to the region Thursday and Friday.
The boundary is currently located across northwestern OK this morning as a mid-level trough is moving eastward across the northern high plains. This system will move into the Great Lakes region later today with the trailing cold front moving across the Tulsa area around noon to 1pm. The window for the isolated storms will be very small for any given location and mainly across the far NE part of the state.
Wind speeds behind the departing boundary will increase rapidly as the front moves southward. Northwest winds from 20 to 40 mph will be likely across the northern third of the state as the pressure gradient remains strong for the next 36 hours. These strong winds combined with low relative humidity will enhance the fire danger this afternoon locations near and west of Osage county under a Red Flag Warning. Despite the recent rainfall this past Saturday, weather conditions would support a rapid spread of the fire.
Temperatures will top out in the lower to mid-70s by early afternoon near the Tulsa area and drop into the lower 60s by 5pm to 6pm and mid-50s by 10pm this evening. Thursday morning lows in the lower 40s will be followed with highs in the upper 60s along with gusty northwest winds in the 20 to 35 mph range. The fire danger will also be elevated Thursday across the region and wind advisories will more than likely be required for portions of the area tomorrow.
Model data supports an increase in southerly winds by this weekend which will begin to transport low level moisture back into the region by early next week. GFS and EURO data differ in the exact details, but a system will be nearing by this period with a slight chance of showers and storms.
Yesterday the high in Tulsa was 81 recorded at 2:39pm. The normal high today is 73 and the low is 50. Daily records include 90 from 2005, 1947, and 1921. The record low is 30 from 1976.
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