Tuesday Morning Update

Tuesday, October 9th 2012, 6:08 am
By: Alan Crone

An active weather pattern will unfold near the area by the end of the week.  Mostly sunny, breezy, and mild conditions are expected for most of today. 

After a super nice fall day yesterday, we're taking a move back to spring time today with highs nearing 80.  South to southwest winds will increase speeds in the 15 to 25 mph range and the fire danger will become elevated due to gusty wind.  Thankfully many areas have experienced rainfall allowing for some "greening" of grasses and vegetation, but many areas will continue to have dry overgrowth allowing for increased fire spread issues.  

A weak front will move across the area tonight but very little precipitation will be expected as significant low level moisture is effectively located well south of our area.  This boundary will push to the Red River Wednesday before moving northward as a warm front pre-dawn Thursday.  As this process occurs, some scattered thunderstorms will be likely across far NE OK, SE Kansas, and SW MO for a few hours early Thursday morning.  More importantly, south winds will rapidly increase low level moisture across the area ahead of the next major storm system nearing the area Friday and Saturday.  

The boundary may ooze southward for a few hours and provide a focus for thunderstorms late Thursday night or Friday morning across Northern Ok and Southern Kansas.  Data supports some moderate to heavy rainfall potential in some locations.  There may be a marginal severe weather threat, even Friday morning, due to the presence of the west to east boundary. If winds aloft are strong enough, a few storms could become severe near the boundary.  We'll not know the specifics of this Friday morning set up for another day or so, but it's worth mentioning at this point in the forecast process.   

The main upper level system, currently west of California over the Pacific, will be nearing our region Friday and Saturday.  Model data supports a strong and dynamic upper level low supporting the possibility of severe storms near the central plains into portions of Oklahoma.  Again, we're a little too early to make any specific predictions on what type of storm activity we may encounter, but I feel it's worth a mention, even 5 days out, to make sure you're aware of this possibility. The GFS-EURO data are both remarkably close in the placement of the main upper level system and would place the low near the western Nebraska-Western South Dakota region by early Saturday morning.  The surface low placement is currently depicted near Southeastern Nebraska by Saturday afternoon. This may keep the main threat of severe storms slightly north of our immediate area.   

I'll keep most of Sunday and Monday precipitation free, but EURO data has been hinting at a secondary trough following Saturday's main upper air circulation.  If this occurs, we're basically in the running for additional storms either Sunday evening or Monday as this portion of the trough attempts to move eastward.   


Our temps will more back to near 80 today, near 70 Wednesday, near 75 Thursday, and nearing 80 Friday.  Overnight lows will remain in the 40s for the next two mornings and move into the 50s and 60s for the remainder of the seven day planner.  

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Alan Crone