Monday Morning Update

After a very chilly weekend, we're in store for a modest warm up today and tomorrow before another weak cold front passes the area Tuesday night.   The end of this week will feature a very active weather pattern, including the threat of severe storms across the southern or central plains.

The weekend cold snap is just about over. Low temps this morning in the 30s will be replaced with highs in the upper 60s this afternoon along with sunshine and south winds.  Temps Tuesday will move into the mid or upper 70s along with gusty south winds, but a cold front will pass the area late Tuesday evening  bringing highs back down into the upper 60s to near 70 Wednesday afternoon.  A few showers or storms may be possible across far eastern OK late Tuesday evening with the frontal passage but the moisture content will be lacking in quality and depth. I'll only make a mention of this slight probability and not include the pop on the 7 day planner.  But as the upper air pattern changes late this week, the south winds will quickly bring gulf moisture northward into the state as a powerful southwestern Upper air low-trough approaches the area.  The increase of low level moisture, a surface boundary nearby, and the upper level system could provide the first chance for severe weather we've seen during the early fall season. 

Storms may develop Thursday night into Friday across northern OK as Tuesday nights cold front retreats northward as a warm front and becomes stationary near the Kansas state line.  This boundary will be near northern OK Friday morning with a good chance of showers and storms across northern OK and southern Kansas.

As the strong upper level low approaches Friday night into Saturday, wind direction and speeds aloft will be favorable for developing sustained updrafts in thunderstorms.  The depth and quality of the moisture would support a mention of severe weather, more than likely Saturday afternoon and evening, across the southern plains.  The placement of the synoptic features will not be known with any certainty for a few days, but the pattern would suggest northern OK and much of central and eastern Kansas could experience some severe weather threat Friday or Saturday.  

The front would pass the area sometime Saturday evening or early Sunday morning as the main upper level trough clears the region.  This should result in improving weather late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.  The EURO model attempts to develop a small secondary trough at the base of the departing upper level system which would keep a chance of showers or storms in the forecast Sunday night or possibly Monday morning. 

We set a few records this weekend regarding the cold air.

 Saturday set a record for coldest daytime high of 50 degrees.   Sunday set a record for the earliest recorded freeze in Tulsa history. 

Our normal-average high for today is 75 and the low is 53. 

Daily records include the high of 97 from 1979 and the low of 30 from 2000.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.    http://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter  @alancrone

Thanks for reading the morning blog!  Have super and safe Monday!

Alan Crone