Monday Morning Update

Monday, October 1st 2012, 6:06 am
By: Alan Crone

Expect highs today in the upper 70s and lower 80s along with gusty north winds this afternoon and a 10% chance of a shower.  Sunny and mild weather is likely Tuesday and Wednesday.

The weather will be dominated today by a departing storm system located east of the state.  We'll be on the back side of this system and will see mostly cloudy conditions this morning followed by a sun-cloud mix later today.  North winds will increase speeds in the 10 to 20 mph range with a very slight chance of an isolated shower or two later this afternoon.  I have kept the probability around 10% for this small chance.  After today, we're in good shape until Thursday when the next front will approach the area bringing a chance of showers or storms followed by a robust cool down this weekend.

EURO and GFS data offer some different solutions regarding the end of the week, but we have basically sided more with the GFS than the EURO, and will bring the boundary through the area Thursday.  EURO attempts to move the boundary back northward as a warm front Friday with south winds as the pressure begins to drop to our west across the Rockies.  The GFS keeps the boundary southward through Friday and brings another shot of cool air into the area Saturday along with some overrunning precipitation Saturday into part of Sunday.  Both scenarios seem plausible, but obviously, only one can be correct. We'll keep a high Friday near 74 with an east wind, but will bring the weekend numbers down into the 60s for highs and upper 40s and lower 50s for morning lows.  If all goes as planned, this air mass will be a relatively cool air mass, even by early October standards.  Areas across the upper plains states could see some snow by this weekend.

Yesterday the high in Tulsa was 77 recorded at 3:17PM.  Today the normal average high is 78 with the low of 56.  Daily records include 97 from 1910, and 38 from 1985, 1984, and 1958.

Sunrise this morning will occur at 7:19AM and sunset tonight at 7:06PM.