Friday Morning Update

Friday, September 28th 2012, 6:42 am
By: Alan Crone

We're still in the running for some scattered showers or storms today, but I have lowered the probability from yesterday's forecast to 40%, and this may be too high.  The rain this morning is located well west of our area but is moving east to southeast at this hour.  Short term guidance and observational trends supports a general weakening of this system has it moves east this morning.  A small disturbance near this batch could provide the lift needed for a few scattered storms this afternoon, but I'll keep the probability at 40% for this time period.  This means a lot of folks will miss out on the storm activity, but you may also experience a shower or two. 

The clouds have temporarily cleared across central OK and some fog formed during the past few hours near the I-35 area, including the OKC metro.  This fog may persist through 11AM.  Some patchy fog is a possibility across eastern OK this morning, but a dense fog issue is not expected.

Temperatures will also be moving back into the upper 70s across Northern OK/Southern Kansas, while some locations near and south of Tulsa could see some lower 80s.  RAW output from the NAM supports a high near 84 in Tulsa, but I have undercut the computer numbers by 2 to 4 degrees due to the expected sun/cloud mix.  If we have less clouds and more sun, the 84 will verify.

The additional moisture from Miriam will take a southern route and move across portions of Texas this weekend, but some moisture is expected to slide northward into southern OK later tonight into Saturday morning.  Rain chances will be higher Saturday and Sunday across the southeastern third of the state, but I'll keep a 30% chance of showers and storms for the Northeastern OK area Saturday. 

Northeast surface winds will bring slightly drier air to the northeastern part of OK and southeastern Kansas tomorrow morning as high pressure builds down across the Midwestern part of the nation.  This means the focus for the weekend rain should also be to our south.   If the clouds clear out late Saturday night into Sunday morning, some dense fog may be an issue into early Sunday morning across the southern part of the state. 

Temperatures this weekend will be feature Saturday morning lows in the lower 60s with highs near 80.  Sunday morning may be the cooler part of the weekend with morning lows in the lower to mid-50s along with afternoon highs in the lower 80s.  North winds will be common both Saturday and Sunday, and may also continue through Tuesday morning of next week before south winds move across the region Wednesday and Thursday.

The extended forecast should be dominated by mostly sunny conditions and above normal temps.  The forecasted lows early next week will be near 60 with afternoon highs in the lower to mid-80s Monday through Wednesday.


The high in Tulsa yesterday was 79 recorded at 2:39 pm.  The normal average high is 79 and the low is 57.

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