Tuesday Morning Update

Temperatures will be in the 105 to 107 range today, but a few isolated storms will be in the forecast late tonight, tomorrow, and more so Friday! Cooler air will arrive for the weekend. 

We're back to the hot stuff!  Highs yesterday moved into the 103 to 107 range and we'll expect similar readings today with highs in the 106 range along with south to southwest winds in the 5 to 15 mph range.   A few showers or storms may be possible today across Northern OK or southern Kansas but the probability will remain on the low side.  A better chance will arrive Wednesday and Thursday with a weak surface boundary that slides across the northern half of the state. The best shot should come Friday as a stronger front approaches the state.

 The mid-level ridge will begin to slide southwest and flatten during the next few days allowing a minor northwest flow aloft pattern to develop.  This flow will become "more pronounced" this weekend, but by Friday a strong mid-level trough will slide across the northern and central high plains allowing a surface boundary to move southward into the state.  EURO and GFS data both suggest the potential for some rain and thunderstorm activity followed by a modest cool down for the weekend but the EURO is suggesting the best precipitation may stay to the northeast of our immediate area.  At this point in the forecast cycle, we'll continue with a rather robust precipitation forecast for Friday.   

Before we get closer to the weekend, the expected pattern change may allow for a weak MCS to impact the area during the late night and early morning time periods.  These storm complexes may end up staying to far northeast of the state, but we'll be in the running Wednesday morning, Thursday morning, and more so Friday morning.  Prior GFS data has been very consistent with this MCS signal for early Friday morning, but I'm unsure of the exact trajectory of any system, therefore I'll just keep a small probability in the forecast for these early morning time periods.  

Temps:

We're back into the excessive heat warnings for the Tulsa county area and heat advisories for many counties across Northern and East Central OK.  Morning lows will be near or above 75 with afternoon heat index values from 105 to 110.  The heat will remain for the next 48 hours before minor relief arrives by Thursday and Friday.  The big payoff will be this weekend as the front moves southward allowing for a mild cool down for the weekend.  Morning lows should drop into the 50s and 60s followed by afternoon highs near or in the lower 80s.   

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Thanks for reading the blog and have a super great day!

Alan