Thursday Morning Update

Expect highs today nearing 100 with southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph.  A chance of storms will arrive this afternoon and evening as a cold front nears the area.  Some could be severe with damaging downbursts of wind the main issue.  

There's not a lot of change to the forecast thinking compared to yesterday morning:  a front arrives sometime later this afternoon and evening bringing a chance of showers and storms followed by a modest cool down Friday.  A few storms may be severe. 

The timing of the front remains a little "iffy" but I think the best timing is this afternoon between 2pm and 5pm for the Tulsa metro , around the 8pm to 10pm hour across far southern sections of our viewing area.  This means temperatures this afternoon could move to near 100 or slightly higher to the south of the immediate area.  The surface winds will veer from the southwest this afternoon directly ahead of the boundary.  This type of air flow combined with this boundary typically results in an upward spike of temperatures.  The fire danger will also be increasing this afternoon despite the chance of scattered storms in the forecast.  Any thunderstorm activity this afternoon and early evening will have the potential of creating damaging winds. 

The boundary will be south of the area by pre-dawn Friday, but some additional showers may be possible tomorrow morning through midday across NE OK post frontal.  We'll keep a mention in the graphics for Friday with highs in the mid-80s. 

We still have some inconsistency regarding the weekend, but there will be a chance of showers and storms Friday night into Saturday morning near the area and I have increased the probability to near 50% for this period.  The NAM data yesterday was totally wet Saturday morning across Eastern OK, while yesterday's GFS and EURO kept most of the precip to our west. This morning's early runs also indicate Saturday morning could be wet across NE OK.  And there may also be another chance late Saturday evening into early Sunday, but I'll only keep a slight mention for this period.  

The EURO is keeping most of the precip Saturday and Sunday to our south, and brings another robust system into the area Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.  I did not add a pop for this portion of the extended but if the data continues in this direction, we'll be making some changes later.  

 Temps:

This weekend should feature below normal temps, but the numbers will climb back into the lower 90s for afternoon readings early next week.  

The good news:  the upper air pattern will remain from the northwest for several more days allowing for several opportunities for shower and storms.  The bad news: the timing of any wave will be a little difficult early next week, but we'll keep the early week period dry until better consistency arrives in the data.