Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, August 15th 2012, 6:38 am
By: Alan Crone

We're moving back into the hot category today and tomorrow before another storm system drives a cold front into the state Thursday night into early Friday bringing a round of storms to the region followed by temps in the 80s.  High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 90s with readings nearing 100 tomorrow afternoon.  The fire danger will remain elevated both today and tomorrow and state wide burn bans remain in place. 

A warm front will scoot across the region this morning and should be positioned northeast of the state this afternoon.  This will bring the warm conditions back to the region along with south winds in the 10 to 20 mph range.  A few isolated storms may be possible later today with a few showers possible this morning across eastern or southeastern OK.  The NSSL and RAP indicate a few isolated storms forming in central OK this afternoon during the 4pm to 6pm time frame.  If they do form, they could be severe.

The front will more than likely not arrive until Thursday evening but the exact timing of the boundary is still up for grabs.  This will have a direct impact on just how hot the temps can move tomorrow before the boundary slides southward.  Obviously an earlier passage will keep the temps down into the lower 90s but the later arrival time will move us to near 100.  At this point, I'll choose the higher temps and the later arrival time for the boundary.  Showers and storms tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours may be strong to severe, but the higher odds for the severe activity may be the northeast across the Missouri valley.

The Friday period may feature a few lingering showers across the area with the higher coverage located across southern OK.  Highs Friday will stay in the 80s with mostly cloudy conditions and northeast winds.

The weekend remains "iffy" at best with various potential solutions.  The NAM indicates a wet Saturday, while the GFS-EURO would keep most of the activity to our west or southwest.   The prudent move is to keep a slight chance of showers or storms for the Saturday time period with highs in the lower to mid-80s.  Both GFS and EURO data now keep our surface winds out of the northeast through Sunday midday before bringing south winds and warmer air back to the state early next week.    The bottom line:  the upper air pattern will remain from the northwest for the next 5 to 8 days and this means the active weather pattern will remain. 

I'm running a little late this morning due to some inner-office work flow issues on my part, and this means I'll not post additional information this morning regarding the El Nino and the possibility of this phenomena developing into the fall and winter months.  Hopefully I'll be able to post more tomorrow.