Starting to see more consistency in the longer range guidance regarding a stronger cool front arriving on Thursday. The latest and greatest data suggests it will bring with it the most significant cool-down we have seen since early June and should also bring a better chance of showers/storms. In fact, the QPF map on the right which is valid through Thursday morning does not even include the better rain chances that are expected for later Thursday and that night. Keep in mind, the QPF only provides area-wide guidance; not everyone will receive the one half inch or more of rain it is showing. In fact, some locations could receive an inch or more while other nearby locations get little or no rain.
Speaking of rain, we have a slight chance of showers by early Sunday morning for the more western counties and another chance late Sunday and through the overnight hours. That will be in advance of a weak cool front that will be arriving Sunday night and early Monday morning. Another slight chance of rain is expected for Wednesday and that night followed by the better chances that are expected for later Thursday. None of this looks to be a drought breaker, but at least we are seeing some occasional systems move through that will bring a few showers/storms for some lucky folks. Your chances of receiving measurable rainfall will only be on the order of 20% for the western counties Sunday morning and 20% for the rest of us Sunday evening and overnight. Right now, we are keeping the chances at only 20% for Wednesday and 40% for Thursday, but if the data trends continue as they have been, then those chances may well go up. Don't want to get your hopes up too high, but it does look promising.
Another thing that looks promising is the cool-down we can expect later in the week. Before that though, we have another hot day in store for Sunday with afternoon highs near triple digits under partly cloudy skies. Also, gusty southerly winds and a minimum relative humidity dropping to near 30% will contribute to fire weather concerns for Sunday.
Monday and Tuesday will see daytime highs in the 90s, so still above normal but at least it looks like we will stay below triple digits. The northerly wind behind the front on Monday will be back to the SE on Tuesday and then a brisk southerly wind for Wednesday. A little more cloud cover and the slight chance of showers/storms should keep Wednesday below triple digits also, and then there is Thursday. At this time range, it appears the front will arrive late in the day but that is certainly subject to change. All indications suggest a more significant cool-down when it does arrive with daytime highs only in the 80s now expected for Fri and Sat afternoons. Our nights will also follow suit with some relatively cool early morning readings, perhaps near record levels as was the case this morning.
At least there is some hope so stay tuned, stay cool, and check back for updates.