Chance of Rain Thursday.


Tuesday, July 24th 2012, 3:09 pm
By: News On 6


Don't want to get your hopes up too much, but we are seeing a consistent signal indicating a decent chance of showers/storms for late Thursday and into early Friday of this week.  In fact, the most recent QPF map shown on the right and valid through Friday morning suggests ½" or more of rainfall.  Keep in mind that is an overall areal average and does not mean that everyone will receive at least that much rain.  Some locations will receive nothing at all, and other locations will pick up much more than that with an inch or more likely in some lucky spots.  There will be some locally heavy downpours and along with that comes the potential for strong and gusty winds. 

As has been mentioned before regarding the rain chances, the chances that it will rain at all in the forecast area stands right at 100%, but the areal coverage will be much less than that.  Right now we are putting the areal coverage of measurable rainfall at 40%.  That means there is a 40% chance of any one location receiving measurable rainfall with this particular event.  Those chances may well go up as better data comes in with subsequent computer solutions.

Along with the chance of showers/storms, we should also get a break in the heat with temperatures below triple digits for a change, but not for long. 

Until then, triple digit heat will persist today and Wednesday with little relief at night as our overnight lows in the urban environment will only be near 80 and in the mid-upper 70s for the more rural locations.  Along with the heat and a rather brisk southerly wind comes a high fire danger and many counties across the state have burn bans in effect. 

Temperatures on Thursday will be rather tricky as it appears that our best chance of showers/storms will be late in the day or that night.  How much cloud cover moves in ahead of those storms will determine how hot we will be as we will have a more S to SW surface wind in advance of the system.  Often, our hottest temperatures occur with a SW wind so it will be interesting to see which effect wins out.  For now, we are keeping daytime highs at or below 100, but we could easily soar to around the 105 mark if those clouds are late in arriving. 

 

Friday looks to have the best chance at staying below triple digits, but things will be quickly heating back up over the weekend and into next week.  The wild card with respect to how hot we will be is how much of a rain footprint will be left by the Thu/Fri event.  If we get lucky and receive more widespread rains than currently anticipated, that will mitigate how much heating we will receive that following week.  If the rains are spotty, which appears most likely, then next week could easily turn out to be the hottest week so far this summer.

As I said at the start, don't get your hopes up too much but at least we do have a chance of rain later this week.  Right now I am being rather conservative regarding the rainfall chances and even if the rains are more widespread, this will still not be a drought breaker.  Just a brief but welcome break in the heat and dryness.

As always, stay tuned, stay cool, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot