Tuesday Morning Update

Tuesday, July 24th 2012, 5:06 am
By: Alan Crone

The heat advisory remains for most of the state and all of the NewsOn6 viewing area.  Temperature heat index values today will move from 104 to 109 across the region with mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions this afternoon.  A few isolated storms will be possible again today to our south and southwest, but even these areas will have relatively small chance of seeing any storm activity.  We continue thinking that our best chance for some storm activity will arrive Thursday evening into Friday as the ridge flattens and a short wave trough approaches across the Midwest. 

Today should be the 18th day for triple digit readings from Tulsa International and the surrounding areas.  The forecast will call for more 100+ weather through Wednesday before we may drop into the 90s Thursday and Friday, but all indications point toward more triple digit readings this weekend. There is some concern that Thursday will also be above 100 before coming down late Thursday evening as the storm chances arrive.  

The pattern will change enough by Thursday to allow a small window for a northwest flow aloft over the region.  This will happen as the ridge slides eastward and weakens as a stout trough slides across the southern Canada area into the upper Midwest.  A strong vort will slide southward into the central plains and help to push a surface boundary southward near the state by Friday.  I lack the confidence to actually forecast a true frontal passage but the GFS-NAM seems to indicate his will occur by Friday morning bringing a round of storms into the region.  We have made some adjustments to our numbers ( slight increase in pops for the period) compared to yesterday morning, and a slight decrease in surface air temps for Friday compared to yesterday morning's forecast.  If the data is gospel, we'll be able to lower the highs even more for Friday and increase the pops for both Thursday evening and Friday  but I would rather shoot high for temps and low for pops at this point. 

The fire danger continues to get worse by the day.  A few fires burned yesterday and I have no doubt that more will burn today.  Every day without rain will lead to more significant fire issues and some days will be worse than others with gusty southwest winds.  Even with a chance of storms Thursday into Friday, the fire danger will remain.  

The weekend should feature more hot air with highs in the 100 to 105 range, but the big mystery of just how much rain we get Thursday evening into Friday may play a big role in the exact temperature forecast for the weekend.  Our numbers for Saturday will include a 101, with a 103 for Sunday and Monday.  If we see very little shower or storm activity with the incoming system, our numbers may end up closer to a 105 for the weekend with highs nearing 106 by Monday.  Morning lows will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s regardless for the weekend.  

Yesterday's high was 101 at 4:45PM.  The normal average high is 94 with a low near 73. 

Today the record high is 110 from 1934 and the record low is 60 recorded in both 1927 and 1909.