Thought the map on the right might be of some interest. It shows the number of days so far this year in which the temperature has reached or exceeded triple digits across Oklahoma. I think most of us would agree that we have already had too many of those days, but this is a far cry from where we stood at this time last year when those numbers were basically twice what we have so far this year. Unfortunately, the forecast continues the current heat wave with temperatures near or above 100 expected for the coming week.
Not only will our days be hot, but our nights will be warmer as our winds return to a more southerly direction. A SE wind of 8-15 mph this afternoon and a southerly wind of 8-15 mph for Monday will bring somewhat higher dew point temperatures into the state. The combination of southerly winds through the overnight hours and the higher dew point temperatures should keep our overnight lows in the mid-upper 70s for the urban Tulsa environment and the low-mid 70s elsewhere. Thus not much relief at night.
Also, with dew point temperatures generally running in the 60s, then minimum relative humidity levels during the heat of the day will be closer to 30% than the 20% value we had on Saturday. That will make it feel just a bit more uncomfortable and should also result in at least a few clouds during the day. Unfortunately, our rain chances are still in the slim to none category for much of the coming week.
There is a weak qpf signal along about the Thu/Fri/Sat time frame in which we may see something more than what few isolated showers/storms will occur up till then. Currently, the European model has the more bullish rain guidance during that period. Will take a wait and see approach for now and keep the rain chances below 20% until we see more consistency in the various long range guidance solutions. If subsequent model runs continue that trend, then we may end up with at least a decent chance of rain by late this coming week. Don't want to get your hopes up too high just yet though.
So, stay tuned, stay cool, and check back for updates.