Tuesday Morning Update


Tuesday, June 5th 2012, 6:05 am
By: Alan Crone


Things this morning are very calm compared to yesterday at this hour.  The daily record rainfall for June 4th was set in Tulsa yesterday with 3.32 inches of rainfall surpassing the daily record of 2.87 inches from 1985.  The upper air pattern is undergoing a minor change for few days across the eastern part of the state with a mid-level ridge beginning to build down across the region.  A very small window of northwest flow aloft still brushes the far NE section of the state but the ridge may be in the position to limit the MCS highway for a few days.

A weak front will enter the northern part of the state this morning and move southward during the day.  We do not anticipate any storm activity across northern Ok or southern Kansas with this feature.

An upper level system over the western areas of north Texas will spread thunderstorms into the southwestern part of the state today and tonight.  This system has produced a convectively induced area of vorticity that will basically act as a weak upper level low for the next few days.  The models are all over the place trying to resolve this feature and the impact on the pattern.  A few days ago this system moved northward across western OK, but today the model consensus has it sliding east and southeast over the next few days.  Regardless of the outcome, most of eastern OK will be too far removed from the system for any shower or storm activity, but a few locations across far southern OK may experience some isolated storms Wednesday evening or Thursday.  

Temperatures will continue to be on the warm side with morning lows in the upper 60s or lower 70s along with daytime highs moving into the upper 80s or even the lower 90s.  A weak boundary will slide across the area today and bring a north to northeast surface wind, but the readings behind the front will continue to be on the warm side with highs near 90.  The chance for any significant shower or storm activity is pretty slow along this boundary today and tonight, and I'll keep the mention in the 10% pop range for the day.

The long range data supports a boundary nearing the state by early next week with a healthy chance of showers or storms Monday evening into Tuesday.  At this point in the forecast cycle, we'll only mention a slight chance of showers or storms for Monday.

 

High yesterday: 90  Average normal high today: 85   Average low for Today: 65

Year to date rainfall: 16.97"  Average rainfall to date: 17.20    A departure of:  0:23