A Weak Front Nearing

Thursday, May 24th 2012, 6:14 am
By: Alan Crone

I continue to think there will be a slight chance of isolated storms late this afternoon into pre-dawn Friday morning across extreme northern OK and southern Kansas.  A weak boundary will be nearby along with a surface area of low pressure to our west.  This will create a window of opportunity for a few storms late this afternoon and this evening, but a layer of warm air aloft (the cap) may suppress all storm activity.  This weak boundary will rapidly move northward as a warm front Friday into Saturday and will be across the central and northern high plains this weekend.  This chance of a thunderstorm remains about 10% and is highly conditional but if a storm did form, it would be severe with all modes of severe weather possible.   I'll probably include a mention of this low probability on the 7 day planner because of the potential for a severe storm even though the chance of storm formation is very low. 

The wind and warm air will remain through the weekend.  Lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s will be followed by highs in the upper 80s or lower 90s.   

The front will finally get a decent shove southward early next week bringing a chance of some showers and storms late Monday night into Tuesday and Wednesday across the state.  Most of the upper air support for this time period will be across the central and northern high plains and the severe weather threat early next week will remain low but not zero.   The GFS continues to be the " wet" model with the EURO not quite as bullish.  I have increased the pops into the Wednesday time period, and this period could go higher in subsequent forecast cycles.


Yesterday's high:  92

Today's average high: 81   Today's average low: 62

Record high today: 94 from 1911   Record low today:  42 from 1935

Sunrise today: 6:11AM   Sunset tonight: 8:30PM