Friday Morning Update

Friday, May 18th 2012, 6:07 am
By: Alan Crone

The winds will increase today from the south at 15 to near 30 mph as the next storm system begins to influence the area.  The pressure gradient will tighten up today across the southern and central plains and this will lead to the increase in wind speeds with higher gusts located along and west of I-35. 

A few showers and storms formed late yesterday across Western Kansas and far Western OK due to a weakening upper level vort max moving eastward into the region.  This disturbance is expected to weaken today, but a few lingering echoes are noted this morning on the radar west of I-35. 

Later tonight as the low level jet increases over central OK, a few elevated storms may attempt to form near Ponca City to Wichita Kansas.  This is a very remote possibility with the chances around 20% for our western neighbors. 

Saturday into Sunday a cold front will be approaching the area bringing a round of severe storms to the northwestern OK region Saturday evening.  Some of these storms may hold together as they move eastward into our area by pre-dawn Sunday morning.  EURO data supports a small complex of storms diving southward into central and southwestern OK and totally missing our area Sunday morning, but then develops scattered storms near the boundary Sunday afternoon as the front slides into northeastern OK.  I'll keep the pop at 30% for the Sunday time period and a 20 pop for the Monday period as the front slides south of the area and stalls near the North Texas vicinity.  This boundary will move back to the north Wednesday with warm air bringing the highs back to near 90 by late next week.

The data regarding next week is still inconsistent with the placement of certain weather features that could lead to a round of severe storms by late next week.  The EURO is northward with the system with the GFS more south.  Regardless of the data of choice, the winds and warm air will be back by the middle to end of next week with highs nearing 90.


Yesterday's high: 90

Normal high: 80  Normal low: 60

Record high: 94 from 1987

Record low: 44 from 2002

Sunrise today: 6:15AM

Sunset tonight: 8:26PM


An ozone alert is officially underway today for the Tulsa metro area.  Ozone levels were very high for the last two days in the Tulsa metro area and the Oklahoma Department of Environmental Quality has issued an Ozone Alert today for the area.  If the current wind field forecast verifies today, ozone formation will more than likely not exceed critical levels.  If winds do not increase as forecast, ozone levels may once again reach critical levels.