Active Week Ahead

Expect a mostly cloudy afternoon with highs in the lower 70s.  A chance of showers and storms will be in the forecast overnight into early Tuesday morning, but higher chances will remain to the west  of the area.

Our weather pattern will become very active this week resulting in several chances for severe storms across the state.  The higher chances this evening and overnight will extend from northwestern OK into the southwestern and south-central part of the state.  Thunderstorms will form this afternoon with large hail and the possibility of a few tornadoes across northwestern OK before forming a small complex of storms.  This complex of thunderstorm activity will march southeastward later tonight forming a broad area of heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and some hail.  The current high resolution data suggest this MCS will move across the southwestern or south central part of the state later tonight, but additional development may form early Tuesday morning across southern Kansas moving southeast into northeastern OK.  This area of thunderstorm activity could also feature a few strong to severe storms. 

The upper air flow will be favorable for periodic severe storms almost every day for the next 8 days, but some days will feature much higher severe weather probabilities.   

The EURO and GFS data both support a strong upper level system nearing by Thursday and also this weekend.  Surface features in the model data would support the potential for severe storms including all modes of severe weather Thursday and this weekend. We should remain aware of our weather surroundings for the next 8 to 10 days as this potential begins to unfold.  

Temperatures today and for the next 2 to 3 days will be near or slightly above normal with morning lows in the 50s and afternoon highs in the lower 70s.